Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?

Started May 10, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed as "a) Yes." On 31 August 2016, Brazil's Senate voted to remove Dilma Rouseff from office, and Michel Temer was sworn in as the new President later that day (NY Times, CNN, Fortune, Wall Street Journal). President Rousseff faces impeachment proceedings in Congress (BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg). For more information about the impeachment process see: NY Times and article 86 of Brazil's constitution. Please note that suspension from office (e.g. during an impeachment trial), will not suffice to resolve the question. In the event that Rousseff reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJ will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of her disappearance or exodus. If Rousseff returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions: Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017? Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 97.00%
No 3.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 338
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 1126
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.011437
2.
-0.011437
3.
-0.011437
4.
-0.011437
5.
-0.011437

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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