Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?

Started Jan 19, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2016 09:00PM UTC

Minsk II required the government of Ukraine and separatist forces to reach an agreement on local elections in separatist controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (Telegraph). So far no agreement has been reached, and the Donetsk People's Republic's decision to move ahead with elections on their own in the fall of 2015 nearly derailed the peace process (Reuters, Wall Street Journal). Those elections were rescheduled for February of 2016 under pressure from Russia, and separatist controlled areas of Donetsk did not participate in Ukraine's local elections in October and November of 2015 (Interfax-Ukraine, Novinite, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). Recommended Questions Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017? Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine 0%
Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 305
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 834
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.169252
2.
-0.163309
3.
-0.160368
4.
-0.158596
5.
-0.158596

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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