Started Nov 03, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 in response to actions taken by Russia before 1 January 2017?

This question was closed on "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (The Economist, NATO ). For more information on Article 4 see NATO. NATO has voiced concern about Russia's actions in the Baltics and violations of Turkey's airspace (NY Times, Guardian). Recommended Questions How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016? Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016? Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 560
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 2627
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.046
2.
-0.046
3.
-0.046
4.
-0.046
5.
-0.046

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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