Roche AI Challenge

Closing

Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC (3 months)

The advent of artificial intelligence holds incredible promise to revolutionize pharmaceutical and medical diagnostic technologies. In collaboration with Roche, one of the largest pharmaceutical firms in the world, we are pleased to present you with the Roche AI Challenge! These questions investigate the near-term progress that may come in 2025.

To be eligible for the prizes and badges, make sure you complete the survey and submit forecasts on all questions through the challenge’s conclusion on 30 September 2025. After the challenge has concluded, the top 5% of forecasters will be invited to a special webinar with the Roche Leadership Team, where they'll learn about the project's objectives, design, and outcomes. Three badges will be awarded for the following:

Bronze badge: Forecast on all challenge questions.

Silver badge: Complete the challenge survey (requires Bronze badge).

Gold badge: Achieve top 10% performance (requires Silver badge).

Make your forecasts!

Roche AI Challenge

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Between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issue new formal guidance explicitly addressing validation requirements for AI algorithms used in the analysis of clinical trial data?

As of 30 September 2025, how many novel drug candidates will Insilico Medicine have announced as having entered a US FDA-registered Phase III clinical trial and identified using their AI-driven platforms?

Before 1 October 2025, which of the top four pharmaceutical companies by 2024 research and development budgets will first announce the acquisition of an AI-centered drug development startup with a value of $500 million or more?

Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 30 September 2025, according to MedHELM's medical domain LLM leaderboard?

Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 30 September 2025, according to LM Arena's "Text Arena?"

Roche AI Challenge

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Between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issue new formal guidance explicitly addressing validation requirements for AI algorithms used in the analysis of clinical trial data?

As of 30 September 2025, how many novel drug candidates will Insilico Medicine have announced as having entered a US FDA-registered Phase III clinical trial and identified using their AI-driven platforms?

Before 1 October 2025, which of the top four pharmaceutical companies by 2024 research and development budgets will first announce the acquisition of an AI-centered drug development startup with a value of $500 million or more?

Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 30 September 2025, according to MedHELM's medical domain LLM leaderboard?

Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 30 September 2025, according to LM Arena's "Text Arena?"