The Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) is a government-sponsored research program designed to test the limits of geopolitical forecasting. By combining the ingenuity of human analysts with cutting edge machine systems (including statistical models and algorithms), HFC will develop novel capabilities to help the U.S. Intelligence Community improve their forecasts in an increasingly uncertain world.
The HFC Challenge forms an initial phase of the overall HFC Project. In this initial phase, forecasters on GJ Open are invited to anticipate the outcomes of important geopolitical questions. Participants in this challenge will gain:
• valuable experience with the types of questions to be addressed in the subsequent human-machine “hybrid” phase of the HFC Program;
• priority placement in the pool of candidates eligible to participate in the subsequent phase of the program, where analyses and forecasts provided by selected participants will serve as the human inputs for several competing human-machine ‘hybrid’ forecasting systems.
The human-machine ‘hybrid’ phase of the HFC Program will begin at the conclusion of the HFC Challenge on GJ Open in early 2018. This latter phase will not take place on GJ Open, and enrollment by participants will be limited on a first-come first-served basis.
IMPORTANT: Participants in the HFC Challenge on GJ Open who are interested in being considered for selection in the broader HFC Program must register with HFC using their GJ Open account credentials here.