Did you know that the best forecasters are approximately half as noisy as the rest of the crowd? To explore the pervasiveness of noise within forecasting (and ways to reduce it), Good Judgment Open is pleased to partner with Olivier Sibony, one of the co-authors (together with Daniel Kahneman and Cass R. Sunstein) of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, to bring the lessons from this critically acclaimed book to life within the Noise forecasting challenge. The most accurate forecasters within the challenge will win copies of Noise signed by Daniel Kahneman.
For more information consult the challenge page here.
NOTE: As the original challenge rules state (https://goodjudgment.com/noise), the top-scoring participant on the challenge leaderboard who forecasts on all challenge questions (14 original questions) will receive a prize. As an added incentive, the top-scoring participant on the challenge leaderboard who forecasts on at least 10 challenge questions will also receive a prize. Note that each participant is only eligible for a single prize.