https://americanmilitarynews.com/2020/05/report-trump-wants-new-age-nuke-agreement-with-russia-china/

" . . .
U.S. officials who spoke with The Wall Street Journal on the condition of anonymity said Marshall Billingslea, Trump’s senior envoy on arms control, is seeking new talks on a new nuclear treaty with Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov. The agenda for their meeting is still in the works, but the meeting is likely to take place in Vienna.

“We have agreed that as soon as possible, taking into account the Covid virus, we will get together to begin negotiations,”

Wildwood2000
made a comment:

@LokiOdinevich Why would 100% be a far chance of the two starting formal talks, considering nothing has to be accomplished other than talks and the Treaty ends next year without an extension or new Treaty being reached? As well the announcement of formal talks beginning a few weeks ago? In the Defense News Media??
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NEW START Billingslea Lambastes New START
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Scroll down to about Paragraph 33 under heading NEW START: Billingslea Lambastes New START
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Reif and Bugos (2020). May 27, stated that:
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In his first public comments this month, Special Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea described his initial engagement with his Russian counterpart, criticized the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and sketched out some of the administration’s goals for a new trilateral agreement (Para. 33).

In remarks at a May 21 event at the Hudson Institute, Billingslea said that he and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov agreed in a May 8 phone call “to meet, talk about our respective concerns and objectives, and find a way forward to begin negotiations” on a new arms control agreement.

“So, we have settled on a venue, and we are working on an agenda based on the exchange of views that has taken place,” he added. The location of the dialogue is most likely to be Vienna.

On New START, which expires in February 2021 unless President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to extend it by up to five years, Billingslea said that “potential extension of our existing obligations must be tied to progress towards a new era of arms control.”

Russia has stated that it is ready to extend New START without any preconditions, but the Trump administration remains undecided on the treaty’s fate (Para. 33-37).
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Reference
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Reif, K. & Bugos, S. (2020). NEW START. Billingslea Lambastes New START. Arms Control Association. May 27, 2020. Retrieved from
https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2020-05/us-russian-nuclear-arms-control-watch

THE TRUMP administration's top official for nuclear nonproliferation said Thursday he had begun talks with his Russia about a new arms treaty that would include China, but declined to say whether the president would renew a key treaty that expires in February.

Shinkman, P., D. (2020). Trump Delays New START Treaty Decision, Calls for New Talks with Russia, China. The Associated Press. May 21, 2020. Retrieved from
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-05-21/trump-delays-new-start-treaty-decision-calls-for-new-talks-with-russia-china

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Gould, J. (2020). US-Russia New START talks starting, says envoy. Defense News. Nuclear Arsenal. May 21, 2020. Retrieved from
https://www.defensenews.com/2020/05/21/us-russia-new-start-talks-starting-says-envoy/
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Gordon, M., R. (2020). U.S. Plans New Arms Talks Aimed at Limiting Russian, Chinese and U.S. Nuclear Warheads. The Wall Street Journal. Politics. National Security. May 21, 2020. Retrieved from
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-russia-plan-talks-aimed-at-limiting-russian-chinese-and-u-s-nuclear-warheads-11590087614
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Riechmann, D. (2020). Time running out on the last US-Russia nuclear arms treaty. The Associated Press. Nuclear Arsenal. May 25, 2020. Retrieved from
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/05/24/time-running-out-on-the-last-us-russia-nuclear-arms-treaty/

LokiOdinevich
made a comment:

Hey @Wildwood! I remember you mentioning a couple of months ago that you were going to check on my Brier score after a couple of months!

So I find your comments in general, and the above in particular, to be very informative. In this case, all your links seem like they all point in the same direction, yet there are also reasons which point to the other side:
- Trump wants China to participate, but China doesn't want to
- Even if the meeting happens, it might not happen before October; said meeting make take more than a couple of months to organize
- The Trump administration has a boisterous ethos, such that it's statements are good indicators of allegiance to a team or faction, or about the spirit of the thing, but maybe shouldn't be taken literally.

Some other factors on the other direction:
- I live in Vienna. It's a good place to have a meeting/talk like this, geopolitically. Austria prides herself on her mediator role here.
- Counterpoint: It's also the natural place / Schelling point to have it happen, and so might be indicative of a lack of thought. If they'd said they were going to have it carry out in, say, Tashkent, that'd have given me some thought.
- Billingslea seems personally ambitious, and he's likely to get further in his career if he organizes the talks than if he doesn't.

LokiOdinevich
made a comment:

Also, given that you only write 0% of 100%, and your Brier score is 0.125, we can calculate the percentage of times which your 100% end up being correct; it turns out to be 87.5%. If instead of 100%/0%, you wrote 87.5% / 12.5%, your Brier score would be 0.109375 (slightly lower).

I thought this might be of interest, @Wildwood2000, but of course YMMV.

Wildwood2000
made a comment:

Your assessment is based on a 0-100 or simple percentage.
Our Bier scores are 0 to 2 so that mathematical percentage of correct is Incorrect. a 0 = 100 percent correct on all probabilities, a 2 = 100% wrong on all probabilities scored. Then a 1.00 is 50% and a .50 is 75% and a .25 is 88.% and a 1.25 is 94% of all scored.
My Bier score with 50 scored probabilities was a 0.127. How many open probabilities do you have?, I can get back with you and give you an exact score for me at your stage of your first year.
I was taught to forecast at MIT and hold to my teachings inasmuch as I was ranked #12 /4,500 in season 3 GJP and #4 in season 4.
What is your total scored forecast verse the number of wrong answers using anything over 1.0 as wrong.?
My stats are up 311/326 or I have missed 15 out of the last 326 scored forecast or around 95.4%.
Quote from my MIT professor that recruited me onto the project,
"If you have 85% probability of the event occurring and it occurs, You are only 85% right"!

GL2814
made a comment:

Ah yes, the square of the distance does have its bite. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

The trick around here is beating the median. Lamont Cranston has a sporty score going after the latest GJP2 round of scoring. Not sporty enough to challenge, but I should drop a number of people in the long run.

This is where I get lost - is it just about playing the scoring function. 😢

Wildwood2000
made a comment:

Yea, like they allow me to have a good median score 100% with the crowd at 20% for 100% Participation Rate still -0.876 come on. Oh the median only applies for those who they allow to play, or not if they want to keep you under-the radar.

GL2814
made a comment:

@Wildwood2000 this is looks like a poor man's version of the green room. I'm about ninth against the 45 super dupers I'm playing against and I'm just doing old man basketball. We might have an unknown smart fern that is going to win the overall prize of all of the experimental instances. He's pretty jam up as they say in Savannah:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmwcaP2wwEg

Our number two is a medical grad student. It'll be interesting to see where ends up. He can be found around here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m57gzA2JCcM

This was a pretty good warm up tune back in the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIVe-rZBcm4

Wildwood2000
made a comment:
Wildwood2000
made a comment:

@GL2814

#1 from GJP visited me a few years ago and said Because People would not want to Play with you. LOL

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username