Started Mar 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2020 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020?

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011 and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years (Economist). There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (CNN, Federation of American Scientists).

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Name Probability
Yes 20%

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