The Economist asks:
Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020?
Started
Mar 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 22, 2020 12:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 22, 2020 12:00PM UTC
Challenges
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011 and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years (Economist). There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (CNN, Federation of American Scientists).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 22 June 2020.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 40.00% | |
No | 60.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 268 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 812 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |