Started Mar 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 22, 2020 12:00PM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020?

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011 and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years (Economist). There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (CNN, Federation of American Scientists).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 22 June 2020.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 40.00%
No 60.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 268
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 812
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.322
2.
-1.271
3.
-1.26
5.
-1.23

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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