Full Forecast: https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol13/
Unfortunately for the SNP, the massive lead they enjoyed during the peak of the British pandemic appears to have abated as the country has gotten the pandemic mostly under control (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election_(regional_vote).png). At the same time the SNP has seen a dip in the polls, so too has support for Scottish independence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wiki_Scots_Indep_V6_new_format.pdf).
According to The New Statemen's election model, the SNP are forecasted to receive 37% of the vote and win 62 seats–a net loss of one seat and just short of the 65 needed for a majority (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2021/04/scottish-independence-poll-tracker-will-scotland-vote-leave-uk)
And based on our election model (https://globalguessing.com/tag/elections/), the SNP have a 30% likelihood of a majority.
Full Forecast: https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol13/
Unfortunately for the SNP, the massive lead they enjoyed during the peak of the British pandemic appears to have abated as the country has gotten the pandemic mostly under control (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election_(regional_vote).png). At the same time the SNP has seen a dip in the polls, so too has support for Scottish independence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wiki_Scots_Indep_V6_new_format.pdf).
According to The New Statemen's election model, the SNP are forecasted to receive 37% of the vote and win 62 seats–a net loss of one seat and just short of the 65 needed for a majority (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2021/04/scottish-independence-poll-tracker-will-scotland-vote-leave-uk)
And based on our election model (https://globalguessing.com/tag/elections/), the SNP have a 30% likelihood of a majority.