Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?

The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 (Edinburgh Live, Parliament.scot, Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom (BBC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 May 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 66.00%
No 34.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 547
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.635
2.
-1.126
3.
-0.98
4.
-0.977
5.
-0.839

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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