Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?

The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 (Edinburgh Live,, - Current State of the Parties). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom (BBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 May 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 66.00%
No 34.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 547
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username