Anneinak
made their 35th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
15% (-5%)
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
85% (+5%)
Not before 18 September 2021

Today, I met 4 Dutch citizens, including the Ambassador to the US and the Consul-General in San Francisco.

I learned:
-that a provisional/caretaker government can govern until the next election!
-that a provisional/caretaker government cannot change policy or adopt new policies . . . about, say, climate change or COVID
-that some think that there is a very slim chance that Rutte & Kaag will agree to form a minority government. If this happens, it could be done in short order.
-that, otherwise, it is thought that it will be late September or early October before a new government is sworn in.

Consequently, I'm increasing my forecast for after Sept 18th.

@bh4eh, @tarun_b, @SE_Meyer, @JMR2017

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bh4eh
made a comment:

Hi Anne

Thanks for that really useful information. I will certainly increase my 18 Sept allocation following your info. I was aware of i) & iv) above and was increasingly thinking of iii) above as the most likely. Thanks again.

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LokiOdinevich
made a comment:

Hardcore.

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SammySullivan
made a comment:

Comment deleted on Mar 09, 2024 11:37PM UTC

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Comment deleted on Mar 19, 2024 02:44PM UTC

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