The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (Economist, Dutch News, BBC, houseofrepresentatives.nl). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (Reuters). A caretaker government would not count.

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The question closed "Not before 18 September 2021" with a closing date of 18 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021 0%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021 0%
Not before 18 September 2021 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 132
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Number of Forecasts 887
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.219074
2.
-0.941939
3.
-0.924788
4.
-0.91254
5.
-0.905156

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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