A really smart forecaster friend who is not forecasting on this one told me, "The EU has zero incentive to push this along in the next few months. The EP made its thoughts abundantly clear in May (https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/20/european-parliament-votes-to-freeze-controversial-eu-china-investment-deal), and that was on top of the EU sanctioning the PRC for the first time since the Reagan Administration (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/03/22/eu-imposes-further-sanctions-over-serious-violations-of-human-rights-around-the-world/). The CAI may be a train on the tracks, but neither side is going to pitch in for coal to keep it moving unless and until there's a major change in the postures of the EU and the PRC as to Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc." I agree.
And I do not foresee a "major change in the postures of the EU and the PRC as to Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc." during the timeframe of this question.
I think the double awareness on the scope sensitivity is worth noting..not only is there a short timeframe, but no incentive to hurry.
A really smart forecaster friend who is not forecasting on this one told me, "The EU has zero incentive to push this along in the next few months. The EP made its thoughts abundantly clear in May (https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/20/european-parliament-votes-to-freeze-controversial-eu-china-investment-deal), and that was on top of the EU sanctioning the PRC for the first time since the Reagan Administration (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/03/22/eu-imposes-further-sanctions-over-serious-violations-of-human-rights-around-the-world/). The CAI may be a train on the tracks, but neither side is going to pitch in for coal to keep it moving unless and until there's a major change in the postures of the EU and the PRC as to Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc." I agree.
And I do not foresee a "major change in the postures of the EU and the PRC as to Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc." during the timeframe of this question.
I think the double awareness on the scope sensitivity is worth noting..not only is there a short timeframe, but no incentive to hurry.