Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (European Parliament - Briefing, European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI), CEPS, South China Morning Post, Core.ac.uk). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 9 June 2021: A negotiator agreement on the CAI is not synonymous with the EU signing the CAI. Please note the first link in the second sentence of the question description, particularly the section on Signing.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022 0.00% +0.00%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022 13.00% +0.00%
No 87.00% +0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username