The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (European Parliament - Briefing, European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI), CEPS, South China Morning Post, Core.ac.uk). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.

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NOTE 9 June 2021: A negotiator agreement on the CAI is not synonymous with the EU signing the CAI. Please note the first link in the second sentence of the question description, particularly the section on Signing.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022 0%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 284
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 1243
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.75659
2.
-0.75113
3.
-0.75113
4.
-0.742834
5.
-0.742834

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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