Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (European Parliament - Briefing, European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI), CEPS, South China Morning Post, Core.ac.uk). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.

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NOTE 9 June 2021: A negotiator agreement on the CAI is not synonymous with the EU signing the CAI. Please note the first link in the second sentence of the question description, particularly the section on Signing.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022 0%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022 0%
No 100%

No. of
Forecasters

284

Forecast
Count

1243

Crowd Brier Score

0.7985


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.757
2.
-0.751
3.
-0.751
4.
-0.743
5.
-0.743

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