Good Judgment® Open

At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021?

27 Forecasters • 29 Forecasts

Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Nov 03, 2021 07:01AM UTC

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Lower

Same

97%

Higher

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?

5%

Chance

50 Forecasters • 102 Forecasts

Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021?

60 Forecasters • 120 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 22, 2021 07:01AM UTC

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Lower

Same

91%

Higher

ericbays asks:

Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?

73%

Chance

63 Forecasters • 169 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 15, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Columbus asks:

Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?

2%

Chance

60 Forecasters • 92 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

68 Forecasters • 193 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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Less than 2.00%

Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive

67%

More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%

24%

3.00% or more

Adam Grant asks:

Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?

1%

Chance

217 Forecasters • 410 Forecasts

Started Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Aug 20, 2021 07:01AM UTC

At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?

87 Forecasters • 167 Forecasts

Started Mar 19, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 28, 2021 07:01AM UTC

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Lower

Same

99%

Higher

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

5%

Chance

96 Forecasters • 311 Forecasts

Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 15, 2021 08:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

1%

Chance

112 Forecasters • 359 Forecasts

Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

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At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021?

Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?

5%

At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021?

Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?

73%

Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?

2%

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?

1%

At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

5%

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

1%

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5%

73%

2%

1%

5%

1%