Good Judgment® Open

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

30%

Chance

70 Forecasters • 122 Forecasts

Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 15, 2021 08:01AM UTC

At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?

60 Forecasters • 78 Forecasts

Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jun 16, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Lower

Same

99%

Higher

The Economist asks:

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

3%

Chance

87 Forecasters • 226 Forecasts

Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?

72 Forecasters • 235 Forecasts

Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Less than 1.500

Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive

22%

More than 2.000 but less than 2.500

62%

Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive

16%

More than 3.000

At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?

75 Forecasters • 102 Forecasts

Started Dec 22, 2020 06:00PM UTC

Closing Apr 28, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Lower

Same

100%

Higher

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

190 Forecasters • 435 Forecasts

Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022

17%

Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022

83%

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?

1%

Chance

224 Forecasters • 343 Forecasts

Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

5%

Chance

123 Forecasters • 233 Forecasts

Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?

0%

Chance

202 Forecasters • 377 Forecasts

Started Dec 11, 2020 06:00PM UTC

Closing May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC

At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?

99 Forecasters • 168 Forecasts

Started Nov 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC

Closing Mar 17, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Lower

Same

100%

Higher

Status

Type

Sort By

Filter By

Challenges

Select All

Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?

30%

At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

3%

What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?

At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?

1%

Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?

5%

Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?

0%

At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?

Status

Type

Sort By

Filter By

Challenges

Tags

30%

3%

1%

5%

0%