ConMan0321 asks:

Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 4 June 2026?

Started Jan 09, 2026 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC

The last and longest federal government shutdown ended in November 2025, and appropriations as of the launch of this question were due to expire after 30 January 2026 (The Hill, Politico). For the purposes of this question, a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation for more than 24 hours. An appropriation expiration lasting less than one day will not count (e.g., CBS News). A partial shutdown (i.e., impacting some but not all departments) will count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 31 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 88%
No 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 108
Number of Forecasts 185
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 250
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.458782
2.
-0.423609
4.
-0.423609
5.
-0.389773

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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