made their 1st forecast (view all):
Democratic Party
Republican Party

There are now 220 Democratic, 212 Republican, and 3 vacant (2 Democratic and 1 Republican) [1]. A switch of only 5 seats would make it 217 D and 218 R. I think the Republicans will gain 5 seats from gerrymandering, and 8 seats from being the opposition party, leading to a 209 D and 226 R House.

The 2020 Census favored Republicans [2]. Texas gained 2 seats, 5 states gained one seat (2 D and 3 R), and 7 states lost one seat (5 D and 2 R). My net estimate is a 3 seat gain for Republicans, depending on how the district lines are drawn. Republicans control redrawing of 43% of congressional districts while Democrats only control 17% [3]. The Supreme Court has given the green light to unlimited gerrymandering, and so this cycle might get extreme.

The president's party almost always loses seats in House mid-term elections [4]. The only exceptions in the last 100 years were 1934, 1998, and 2002. The US was in a depression in 1934, the economy was booming in 1998, and the US was at war in 2002. None of those conditions are present now.

A 538 analysis [5] concludes "Past trends don’t always hold true, but the smart money, at this point, remains on the president’s party losing control of Congress next year."

1. 117th Congress House Seats by State

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