dada
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes

Wondering why the crowd is so low when:

1. Vienna rounds presumably resuming next week ( Iran To Resume JCPOA Talks Next Week, Says Lawmaker https://www.eurasiareview.com/18102021-iran-to-resume-jcpoa-talks-next-week-says-lawmaker/ ) and previous Vienna rounds accomplished much of the ground work with a few "political" issues remaining.
2. post-election delays in Iran were factored in, and not a result of wide disagreements, IAEA disputes apparently on the path to being resolved: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/iran-iaea-spar-over-access-karaj-nuclear-site
3. EU High Representative Borrell: "everybody is determined to bring back the JCPOA...so we are working hard to go back to Vienna." https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1450122885956243460

Clearly once negotiations resume end of October it will be a matter of a few weeks to determine if they fail completely or if the crowd here was moved more by impatience these past few months.

A more speculative picture taking into account a wider regional view, including Qatar-EU relations and the upcoming world cup, makes it difficult to imagine tensions in the gulf ruining that event when a much smaller event as the winter olympics is credited with preventing a scaling up of tensions with China....

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LokiOdinevich
made a comment:

Wow, I was *not* expecting this.

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dada
made a comment:

To be fair, nothing is confirmed yet and a lot is up in the air - but recent visits by Robert Malley to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, CIA Burns taking a direct interest in negotiations, interest in the EU and UN, and increased activity by the Iran FM these last few days give some indications of a renewed push.

Further, I may be giving too much emphasis on the needed regional stability for the upcoming World Cup, but according to this interesting 2021 Thesis on Quatari investments and "subtle power" the strategy is quite sophisticated and Iran-Qatari relations are often overlooked...

https://shareok.org/bitstream/handle/11244/329592/2021_Fitzgerald_Jonathan_Thesis.docx?

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