Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:

Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?

Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Atlantic Council, BBCWashington Post, Federation of American Scientists).

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NOTE 14 June 2021: The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 193
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1083
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.425
2.
-0.416
3.
-0.405
4.
-0.394
5.
-0.393

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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