Terry-Smith
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
75% (+5%)
The Democratic Party candidate
25% (-5%)
The Republican Party candidate
0% (+0%)
Someone else

I've been doing a bit more reading of political science research and am bumping this up a little to 75/25. Partisanship, both positive and negative, is a tough nut to crack, and ultimately I think that should win out.

I also want to point out that I think the betting sites could very well be wrong, since I see their odds come up from time to time when people make their predictions. GJOpen often has a better Brier score than the betting sites do. Back on October 22, 2020, I captured the odds on the various sites. Here were the odds given by GJOpen compared with PredictIt for the upcoming 2020 Presidential election on that date:
1) Biden to win election: PredictIt 0.64, GJOpen 0.83, Result 1.0
2) Biden to win AZ: PredictIt 0.57, GJOpen 0.68, Result 1.0
3) Biden to win FL: PredictIt 0.46, GJOpen 0.65, Result 0.0
4) Biden to win MI: PredictIt 0.69, GJOpen 0.92, Result 1.0
5) Biden to win OH: PredictIt 0.30, GJOpen 0.45, Result 0.0
6) Biden to win PA: PredictIt 0.65, GJOpen 0.85, Result 1.0
7) Biden to win TX: PredictIt 0.27, GJOpen 0.26, Result 0.0
8) Biden it win WI: PredictIt 0.68, GJOpen 0.86, Result 1.0

So as you can see, the GJOpen's Brier on those 8 predictions was 0.1205, which beats PredictIt's Brier of 0.12577. So at least based on that, I wouldn't recommend using betting odds to inform your odds here.

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JMR2017
made a comment:

Thanks @Terry-Smith Good information that keeps me going here.

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Anneinak
made a comment:

@Terry-Smith,
Thanks for sharing that info!

I hope you're right about the VA governor's race!

However, I'm pretty sure that the Admins have told us that GJO forecasters are more liberal/Democratic than the general population, so it stands to reason that when a D is elected POTUS, GJO forecasts will look good. If I remember correctly, GJO forecasts didn't look that great when DJT was elected.

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JMR2017
made a comment:

@Anneinak. Always reminding us of the truth. 🤓
While Democrats take the lead in early voting, Republicans may close the gap on election day.

But, as a person who spent years getting out the vote, I can say that the more early are the voters, the easier it gets to focus efforts on those who have yet to vote. The list gets smaller and the message more targeted.

Democrats have that advantage at the moment.

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Anneinak
made a comment:

@JMR2017,

I, too, know that GOTV isn't a suggestion to turn on the boob tube! But I'm not as confident as you are about how much good such efforts produce. It seems to me that the closer the calling is to election day, the more annoyed and angry people are by such calls, so I'm not sure that they aren't counter-productive. Hard to say! I sure wish somebody would do some follow-up polling and ask voters when they decided who they were going to vote for and what helped them make that decision: mailers, radio ads, tv ads, facebook ads, billboards, yard signs, reminder calls, conversations with friends, etc.

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JMR2017
made a comment:

@Anneinak
Used to be that friends and family were the most effective communications but I'm not so sure about that anymore. Agree that robo calls mean very little but email, text and other creative GOTV methods can be more effective with micro targeting.
Doing some of this here in Texas, I've seen positive results with volunteers doing live calls and follow up emails, texts and videos. But of course we're talking about small margins which can make or break a race. Hoping for good turnout tomorrow. We'll see.

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LokiOdinevich
made a comment:

Thanks for the analysis, but I'd take it with a grain of salt, because the outcome of all those questions is very correlated (so it's kind of similar to having much fewer questions.) Still, thanks.

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JMR2017
made a comment:

Yes, I blew this one @Anneinak and @LokiOdinevich.
Hope got me.

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Terry-Smith
made a comment:

@JMR2017 I got this wrong too (underestimated the impact of the wokeness and critical race theory stuff), but remember that Babe Ruth hit the most home runs but also held the record for the most number of strikeouts. The only way you can win is by losing.

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JMR2017
made a comment:

That is gold..I live by. Thanks @Terry Smith!

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Anneinak
made a comment:

@Terry-Smith,
Thanks for the reminder about the Great Babe!
Many of us let our hope blind us, but all change is the child of hope. Without hope, no risks are taken and nothing ever can change!

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