To my mind, there are various circumstances that would cause Vladimir Putin to cease to be the president of the Russian Federation on before January 1, 2023. These range from the position of presidency to no longer exist by then to Putin having to step down due to poor health to him being forced to step down by parliament, the judiciary or through an armed coup of some sort. Then of course there is the probability of death between now and then, from natural causes or following some sort of attack on his life.
Coups are few and far between in powerful, developed countries such as Russia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Russia). That gives us a near-zero prior probability. There are reports that suggest he has organised the security forces such that it would be very difficult to coordinate a military coup (https://www.vox.com/22961563/putin-russia-ukraine-coup-revolution-invasion). The same applies to a popular uprising (same source). This will also make it very unlikely that his life will be taken in an assassination attempt. While the probability is nonzero, I estimate it to be very low - let's say 1 per cent in a full year, and a fraction of that for the time between now and January 1.
To my mind, the biggest threat to his presidency is his health. The annual mortality rate of Russian men is reported to be 39.1/1000 for 65-69-year-olds and 54.1/1000 for 70-74-year-olds. Putin will turn 70 early October. There are quite a few reports out there that suggest he may suffer from either Parkinson's disease or thyroid cancer. That may be so but we have not seen any evidence. The 'uncontrollable shaking' and his attempts to hide that from view (e.g., https://youtu.be/Xg3HgN11nG0 and https://youtu.be/SGZTNW-U8bw, respectively) may well be indicative of something but I think a diagnosis cannot be stated from these images alone (e.g., https://www.dw.com/en/putin-and-parkinsons-what-experts-say-about-his-health/a-61597476). The same applies to reports of a 'bloated face'. True, he doesn't look too well but if completely honest, I wouldn't have stated that unless I had heard somebody saying that (https://www.dw.com/en/putin-and-parkinsons-what-experts-say-about-his-health/a-61597476). And yes, he must be under tremendous pressure due to the war (from his perspective) not going well which must have all sorts of fallout that may be threatening to him. So my 'posterior' estimate for a Putin death from natural causes is simply the mortality rate for 70-74-year-olds. He's not 70 yet and he'll be a youngster in the 70-74-years-old bin. Had there been no reports or signs of bad health, nor any assumed pressure then I would have taken the mortality rate for the 'younger' bin for the ~5 months between now and his birthday and the rate for the 'older' bin for the ~3 months between his 70th birthday and the closing time of the question.
What I am leaving out is the scenario in which bad health renders him unable to fulfil the duties of a Russian president and that he'll be 'nudged' to step down. I find this very difficult to assess; 'health' is something I have virtually no expertise in. What could happen? A stroke? A heart attack? It's suggested that in the US, the average probability of a stroke for 65-69-year-old men is 11.0%/10 years and 13/7%/10 years for men in the 70-74-year-old age bin (https://www.ninds.nih.gov/health-information/patient-caregiver-education/brain-basics-preventing-stroke). That's only for strokes. Would that render him incapacitated? Again, let's up the odds a bit by taking the higher number, for reasons of assumed pressure/stress and for not knowing the probabilities of heart attack or any other condition that would incapacitate him.
Combining the probabilities gives us 1% probability of a coup/uprising, 5.23% probability of death from natural causes and an additional 1.3% for a stroke - all for a period of one year. Adjusting these for the partial year between now and January 1 gives us 3.41%, 0.89% and 0.65%, respectively. Let's assume these are all independent events (bad health and death probably aren't): that gives a probability of 4.96%.
(PS the uncertainties in any of above dwarf the decimal-point estimates, I know)
To my mind, there are various circumstances that would cause Vladimir Putin to cease to be the president of the Russian Federation on before January 1, 2023. These range from the position of presidency to no longer exist by then to Putin having to step down due to poor health to him being forced to step down by parliament, the judiciary or through an armed coup of some sort. Then of course there is the probability of death between now and then, from natural causes or following some sort of attack on his life.
Coups are few and far between in powerful, developed countries such as Russia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Russia). That gives us a near-zero prior probability. There are reports that suggest he has organised the security forces such that it would be very difficult to coordinate a military coup (https://www.vox.com/22961563/putin-russia-ukraine-coup-revolution-invasion). The same applies to a popular uprising (same source). This will also make it very unlikely that his life will be taken in an assassination attempt. While the probability is nonzero, I estimate it to be very low - let's say 1 per cent in a full year, and a fraction of that for the time between now and January 1.
To my mind, the biggest threat to his presidency is his health. The annual mortality rate of Russian men is reported to be 39.1/1000 for 65-69-year-olds and 54.1/1000 for 70-74-year-olds. Putin will turn 70 early October. There are quite a few reports out there that suggest he may suffer from either Parkinson's disease or thyroid cancer. That may be so but we have not seen any evidence. The 'uncontrollable shaking' and his attempts to hide that from view (e.g., https://youtu.be/Xg3HgN11nG0 and https://youtu.be/SGZTNW-U8bw, respectively) may well be indicative of something but I think a diagnosis cannot be stated from these images alone (e.g., https://www.dw.com/en/putin-and-parkinsons-what-experts-say-about-his-health/a-61597476). The same applies to reports of a 'bloated face'. True, he doesn't look too well but if completely honest, I wouldn't have stated that unless I had heard somebody saying that (https://www.dw.com/en/putin-and-parkinsons-what-experts-say-about-his-health/a-61597476). And yes, he must be under tremendous pressure due to the war (from his perspective) not going well which must have all sorts of fallout that may be threatening to him. So my 'posterior' estimate for a Putin death from natural causes is simply the mortality rate for 70-74-year-olds. He's not 70 yet and he'll be a youngster in the 70-74-years-old bin. Had there been no reports or signs of bad health, nor any assumed pressure then I would have taken the mortality rate for the 'younger' bin for the ~5 months between now and his birthday and the rate for the 'older' bin for the ~3 months between his 70th birthday and the closing time of the question.
What I am leaving out is the scenario in which bad health renders him unable to fulfil the duties of a Russian president and that he'll be 'nudged' to step down. I find this very difficult to assess; 'health' is something I have virtually no expertise in. What could happen? A stroke? A heart attack? It's suggested that in the US, the average probability of a stroke for 65-69-year-old men is 11.0%/10 years and 13/7%/10 years for men in the 70-74-year-old age bin (https://www.ninds.nih.gov/health-information/patient-caregiver-education/brain-basics-preventing-stroke). That's only for strokes. Would that render him incapacitated? Again, let's up the odds a bit by taking the higher number, for reasons of assumed pressure/stress and for not knowing the probabilities of heart attack or any other condition that would incapacitate him.
Combining the probabilities gives us 1% probability of a coup/uprising, 5.23% probability of death from natural causes and an additional 1.3% for a stroke - all for a period of one year. Adjusting these for the partial year between now and January 1 gives us 3.41%, 0.89% and 0.65%, respectively. Let's assume these are all independent events (bad health and death probably aren't): that gives a probability of 4.96%.
(PS the uncertainties in any of above dwarf the decimal-point estimates, I know)
Comment deleted on Sep 03, 2025 01:42PM UTC