Hanyfawwaz and David Epstein ask:

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023?

Started Feb 26, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (Guardian).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 3 May 2022: The temporary transfer of power to an acting president alone would not be considered Putin ceasing to be president (e.g., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty).


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.52%
No 99.48%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 736
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 3281
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.019
3.
-0.019
5.
-0.019

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username