Hanyfawwaz and David Epstein ask:

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023?

Started Feb 26, 2022 05:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (Guardian).

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NOTE 3 May 2022: The temporary transfer of power to an acting president alone would not be considered Putin ceasing to be president (e.g., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty).

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.52%
No 99.48%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 736
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 3281
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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