I've got spread data back to 1994. In the 3 recessions in the data set HY spreads went to 899 (tech bubble), 1833 (GFC), and 880 (COVID). A recession is looking very likely at this point. Every recession probability model I have seen either has breached the threshold for predicting recession or is almost there and getting there quickly. I would put recession odds at at least 80%.
The catch is that spreads spike mid-way through all three recessions, so timing is really important. Recession may be 80% likely over the next 18 months, but it's probably more like 40% in 2022 and even less to reach the mid point. Also, corporate health is much stronger than normal and the maturity scheduled was extended significantly in the post COVID low rate HY issuance frenzy.
@geometry dash lite As indicated by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, the yield of the US high yield market has been about 9% as of May 31, 2023, and has remained in the 8–9% area for the majority of the last year. This is in contrast to a 10-year average of 6.3% and a 20-year average of almost 7.6%. The index's spread is approximately 470 basis points, while the 20-year and 10-year averages are 520 and 450 basis points, respectively. ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the spreads between a spot Treasury curve and an OAS index that is computed for all bonds in a particular rating category.
I've got spread data back to 1994. In the 3 recessions in the data set HY spreads went to 899 (tech bubble), 1833 (GFC), and 880 (COVID). A recession is looking very likely at this point. Every recession probability model I have seen either has breached the threshold for predicting recession or is almost there and getting there quickly. I would put recession odds at at least 80%.
The catch is that spreads spike mid-way through all three recessions, so timing is really important. Recession may be 80% likely over the next 18 months, but it's probably more like 40% in 2022 and even less to reach the mid point. Also, corporate health is much stronger than normal and the maturity scheduled was extended significantly in the post COVID low rate HY issuance frenzy.
@geometry dash lite As indicated by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, the yield of the US high yield market has been about 9% as of May 31, 2023, and has remained in the 8–9% area for the majority of the last year. This is in contrast to a 10-year average of 6.3% and a 20-year average of almost 7.6%. The index's spread is approximately 470 basis points, while the 20-year and 10-year averages are 520 and 450 basis points, respectively. ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the spreads between a spot Treasury curve and an OAS index that is computed for all bonds in a particular rating category.