Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?

As central banks increase interest rates amid recession fears, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) could continue to rise (NASDAQ, Yahoo!, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 29 June 2022, the spread was 5.62%.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.18%
No 95.82%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 338
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.244
2.
-0.237
3.
-0.228
4.
-0.211
5.
-0.188

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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