My forecast is lower than is justified on the basis of public polling data alone. It represents my sense of things, anecdotal input, and my efforts to register and influence voters.
I have yet to meet anyone in Sarah's hometown who intends to even rank her as their 2nd choice, though clearly lots of those people exist.
People know Sarah. There's no amount of advertising or campaigning that is going to sway voters her way. What can/might/will make a difference is if the other Republican in the race urges his voters to rank her 2nd. Sarah's only other hope is if the other Republican withdraws, but Sarah has called him a member of the Old Boys' Club and taunted him by saying that he is not man enough to withdraw, so I don't see that happening! Sarah's campaign seems to have no momentum.
The other Republican is running a very negative campaign. Judging by campaign donations, Nick is not doing well and will not be able to do much. He has no momentum.
Meanwhile, Mary Peltola is doing a great job. She is running some excellent ads and is getting a lot of positive press. She has a tremendous campaign balance thanks to scores of small donations from Alaskans. The more people learn about her, the more they like her. She is gaining momentum.