Started Aug 19, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC

Will former Governor Sarah Palin win the general election for Alaska's At Large Congressional District in 2022?

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia). The outcome of the 2022 special election for the At Large House seat is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.88%
No 93.12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 83
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 367
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 526
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.217
2.
-0.177
3.
-0.138
4.
-0.112
5.
-0.111

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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