Can I ask your how do you determine the spread of the probability distribution?
I'm currently looking at the deviation of the spread over the remaining weeks using data from the last year and I'm getting a much higher spread due to the volatility of 2022 and I'm curious to learn about others' perspective and approach.
@404_NOT_FOUND My spread is similar to yours but is biased a little upward for reasons I have stated in my forecast valid as of this comment's publication. Perhaps you should tweak yours in light of this and adding to the fact that despite @jleibowich's spread is tighter, it is also biased higher than yours. I read he has a data science background so I would adjust based on this but I would also be curious on how he derived his forecast.
Hey! As far as how I determined the spread, I wasn't too rigorous about it, but I wanted to go a little bit above the crowd because of the recent OPEC news. We only have several weeks left, so I figure prices will likely still go up a bit and then maybe come back down a bit later if the economy goes south (but I think six weeks would probably be too soon for the economy to completely tank). Even though oil prices have been all over the place this past year, I don't think they would rapidly go up or down in less than two months unless something crazy unfolds in the Russia-Ukraine War (which I guess is certainly a possibility). I'm waiting to see what happens at the Fed meeting on Nov 2nd because I figure the stock market might take a bit of a hit if they raise the rates quite a bit higher. Long story short, I wasn't overly technical in my forecast, but I wanted my estimate to be a bit above the crowd because of the OPEC news.
@jleibowich Off topic, since you live in SFO: I had just seen a Netflix movie set in San Francisco called Jexi. I think you'll like it. Let me know your brief thoughts if you ever come to watch it. It's super funny and engaging, but it makes you wonder could aspects of this be our future? How far are we in reaching that level of sophisitication seen in the movie? (Rhetorical questions).
Can I ask your how do you determine the spread of the probability distribution?
I'm currently looking at the deviation of the spread over the remaining weeks using data from the last year and I'm getting a much higher spread due to the volatility of 2022 and I'm curious to learn about others' perspective and approach.
Hey! As far as how I determined the spread, I wasn't too rigorous about it, but I wanted to go a little bit above the crowd because of the recent OPEC news. We only have several weeks left, so I figure prices will likely still go up a bit and then maybe come back down a bit later if the economy goes south (but I think six weeks would probably be too soon for the economy to completely tank). Even though oil prices have been all over the place this past year, I don't think they would rapidly go up or down in less than two months unless something crazy unfolds in the Russia-Ukraine War (which I guess is certainly a possibility). I'm waiting to see what happens at the Fed meeting on Nov 2nd because I figure the stock market might take a bit of a hit if they raise the rates quite a bit higher. Long story short, I wasn't overly technical in my forecast, but I wanted my estimate to be a bit above the crowd because of the OPEC news.
@jleibowich @MrLittleTexas @belikewater @Tolga @Ryan-Beck @pstamp @LunaSol @pietrokc @Anneinak @JonathanMann @yagudin @LokiOdinevich @cmeinel @Maarten If you folks are interested, there's a new GJO Discord server thanks to @lbiii and @James-B that's been quite active. You are invited to join here for musings, entertainment, or discussion. We have GJI's @LuisEnrique on board as he takes in ideas and clarifies a few things. Plus, there's an amazing meme featuring a fox and a hedgehog. Plus there's a mock forecast about life on Mars. You don't wanna miss it.
See also for context: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1524374
@LokiOdinevich Cool, you can join here: https://discord.gg/RJpScbZg
Start with introducing yourself under the #intros channel.