A Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) candidate other than Paul Biya
15%
Someone else
1%
No presidential election will be held before 3 November 2025
I looked up the actuarial tables to have an idea of the life expectancy in Cameroon and I was able to find the 2019 data. According to the 2019 data, people aged 85+ have a life expectancy of 4 more years or so. Paul Biya is aged 92. Considering the fact that Biya would get the best of healthcare and resources, the chances of him dying before the election are low-moderate. Also, there have been various rumors about his ailing health. Aljazeera
The only reason why there could be an unexpected outcome would be Paul Biya's death. In which case, I feel the opposition would have a better chance.
Although I have to say that the opposition faces challenges in uniting against the long-standing CPDM dominance. Efforts are underway to consolidate support, particularly around Maurice Kamto, to present a formidable challenge to President Biya.
Key Candidates:
Maurice Kamto: A 71-year-old lawyer and leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC). Kamto has garnered support from over 30 opposition parties under the Political Alliance for Change (APC) coalition. AfricaCenter
Akere Muna: A 72-year-old international lawyer and anti-corruption advocate, running as the candidate for the Univers party. Wikipedia
The following opinion polls seem to put the opposition in a stronger light. (Horizon News)
The poll, conducted by English Cameroon for a United Cameroon with a sample of 702 participants, projected the MRC leader to win the next presidential election by 55.74%. He is trailed by PCRN’s Cabral Libii with 17.98% and incumbent Paul Biya in the third position with 10.41%. Akere Muna of the Now Movement whose candidacy was recently endorsed by a coalition of 20 opposition political parties and the civil society came in fourth position with 3.48 percent, while independent candidate, Dr. Christopher Fomunyoh of NDI fame completed the quintet with 2.6 percent.
I am including a 1% chance of the election not happening as scheduled because of the following news article: Reuters. (Relevant sources in problem description already).
Cameroonian President Paul Biya secured approval from lawmakers on Tuesday to delay parliamentary and local elections until 2026, a move opposition parties fear could make it harder for them to mount a challenge in next year's presidential election.
I looked up the actuarial tables to have an idea of the life expectancy in Cameroon and I was able to find the 2019 data. According to the 2019 data, people aged 85+ have a life expectancy of 4 more years or so. Paul Biya is aged 92. Considering the fact that Biya would get the best of healthcare and resources, the chances of him dying before the election are low-moderate. Also, there have been various rumors about his ailing health. Aljazeera
The only reason why there could be an unexpected outcome would be Paul Biya's death. In which case, I feel the opposition would have a better chance.
Although I have to say that the opposition faces challenges in uniting against the long-standing CPDM dominance. Efforts are underway to consolidate support, particularly around Maurice Kamto, to present a formidable challenge to President Biya.
Key Candidates:
The following opinion polls seem to put the opposition in a stronger light. (Horizon News)
I am including a 1% chance of the election not happening as scheduled because of the following news article: Reuters. (Relevant sources in problem description already).