Who will win the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election?

Started Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 12, 2025 05:00PM UTC

Paul Biya, the 92-year-old incumbent who has been president of Cameroon since 1982, is running for reelection in the country's 2025 presidential election amid a fragmented opposition (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Deutsche Welle, Crux). In 2024, Cameroon's parliament extended its term, thereby postponing legislative elections from March 2025 to March 2026 (AOL [Reuters], Deutsche Welle). An independent endorsed by a political party counts as a candidate of that political party. As of the launch of this question, the next Cameroonian presidential election was scheduled for 5 October 2025 (Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa). The question will close early if the presidential election is canceled or postponed to a date after 31 October 2025.

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The question closed "Paul Biya" with a closing date of 12 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Paul Biya 98%
A Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) candidate other than Paul Biya 0%
Someone else 0%
No presidential election will be held before 3 November 2025 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 108
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.137468
2.
-0.107733
3.
-0.08911
4.
-0.062331
5.
-0.055187

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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