This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
Hey look, you guys are getting to diminishing returns here. If the comments are all getting downvoted, maybe this conversation has run to its natural end. We're not a site for converting anyone to any particular viewpoints.
@GJDrew, where do you see downvotes? To what do we owe the courtesy of your visit? Did somebody hit the "inappropriate" button? Or are you flooring downvotes now to 0? If so I may have been downvoted but I can't see it.
@GJDrew you could keep this is the scientific realm and simply say that the Deep State concept is too amorphous and lacks sufficient rigor to be a useful analytical tool here. And speaking of sufficient rigor - don't things like improvement in forecasting and de-biasing require accurate and timely feedback. Or have I misunderstood Tetlock's Master Classes?
@GL2184, worth noting as in the start of this thread, there is no delete button on the whole account. If I feel that I am in danger of being severely politically incorrect or insensitive, my instinct is to reach for the delete button on my account. http://estsfha.net/uploads/news/45231328783210.jpg Alas, there is none. Maybe this is to prevent people from resetting their scores after a bad run. GJOpen could consult the online poker websites for ways of detecting this however. Not that it stops anybody right now from creating multiple accounts and thereby improving their odds in this game as many times as they want.
@000 you could have your own little bot army. Throw a dashboard type of interface on top of them, add some dashes of programming and there's no telling what you could do around here. You could auto-generate comments based on set criteria, pull news items, parse the twitter-verse....
This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
Anyone who wants to follow me offline as I seek the Holy Grail of a more powerful aid to us forecasters, you can reach me at carolyn.meinel@cmeinel.com. Meanwhile I'll do my best to get OFF this game instead of being listed as inactive. So hasta vista to my followers who aren't already interacting with me outside this game: @Xsess @Dwight-Smith @thmnewman @Gil-Edgar @tmahoney @lsgold7 @Counterintelligence @Enthu @Hochstetler @Delorean @g @howard @facetious @The_Gnome @BG1 @DrStrangelove @Flyn1200 @PianoPicasso @AndersAsa @writeitdown @HW15 @tkimble @Doudtful @firemansghost @mparrault @lindsey @Dima-K @crntaylor @azivkovic @Mos @MattWard @AlexisTocqueville @luckyomari @Ermonic @Pstauble @Edwinian @Clairvoyance @ACurmudgeon @ @ts2m @M3T1tus @dada @GeneH @S1 @ConnorM @peterhansen90 @Bklyn_j @dniewood @deggen @Etsudo @praedico @Spyglass @Manfred @VoxVox @FuturoMAGE @subject1138 @MAA414 @richtyge @gkamstra @RCScheffers @Random @Spandrelbarca @Rene @gstaneff @fifty-sixty @spotter @dbealick @davidk @terobrandstaka @RobK @walt @Rectitude @malcmur @dominich @Konrad @balbec @Ioana @Raisinville @rjfmgy @Rote @TopQuark @ESR @Xu @sharms10k @Paul15 @NickLutz @Ritam @seveDB @Jean-Pierre @Bill @Agent0090 @RolandKofler @Aches @JoeG @madre @Paul_Theron @September @DariusX @AgentCarter @JeanP @tumbleweed @Reynard @SmallTown-Gal
Comment deleted on Apr 16, 2016 08:15PM UTC
Hey look, you guys are getting to diminishing returns here. If the comments are all getting downvoted, maybe this conversation has run to its natural end. We're not a site for converting anyone to any particular viewpoints.
So @ravel, you don't think I'm being scary or rattly by referencing lefty sites like http://www.powerbase.info/index.php/Powerbase:About and https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Wikispooks:About? Please say Yes.
http://bettercities.net/sites/default/files/bbendnear.jpg
@GJDrew, where do you see downvotes? To what do we owe the courtesy of your visit? Did somebody hit the "inappropriate" button? Or are you flooring downvotes now to 0? If so I may have been downvoted but I can't see it.
@GJDrew you could keep this is the scientific realm and simply say that the Deep State concept is too amorphous and lacks sufficient rigor to be a useful analytical tool here. And speaking of sufficient rigor - don't things like improvement in forecasting and de-biasing require accurate and timely feedback. Or have I misunderstood Tetlock's Master Classes?
****update - I can edit myself again
@GL2184, @GJDrew didn't get your prior post because of the hash sign.
@Anneinak thanks much. I currently can't edit my stuff, but I can edit @000 It's the same old same old around here. SSDD.
@GL2184, worth noting as in the start of this thread, there is no delete button on the whole account. If I feel that I am in danger of being severely politically incorrect or insensitive, my instinct is to reach for the delete button on my account. http://estsfha.net/uploads/news/45231328783210.jpg Alas, there is none. Maybe this is to prevent people from resetting their scores after a bad run. GJOpen could consult the online poker websites for ways of detecting this however. Not that it stops anybody right now from creating multiple accounts and thereby improving their odds in this game as many times as they want.
@000 you could have your own little bot army. Throw a dashboard type of interface on top of them, add some dashes of programming and there's no telling what you could do around here. You could auto-generate comments based on set criteria, pull news items, parse the twitter-verse....
To infinity and beyond: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejwrxGs_Y_I
@GL2184, I can tell when the beans are getting cold and it's time to pack up and move on.