This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
Carolyn, it is an honor to know you and I for one appreciate you, and your family's years of service to make our world a better and safer place. This game and the previous Ace tournaments, have introduced me to the world of analysis, taught me many things, and illuminated my errors and deficiencies for all the world to see. The supers among us seem to rise to the top regardless of the structural flaws, like @einsteinjs, @Clairvoyance and others.
====COMMENT====
1. I second @ravel; this game thought me many things too; the resolution process is weak, but.....
2. @meinel posts were insightful and appreciated by many, that should count
3. The Majiles question is difficult to understand, perhaps it should be just closed
4. I still like to do this regardless of the small problems, I enjoy doing it
5. I don't want to be a rat, and I'm no longer doing rat races (see article above)
You added a dimension of substance to this game with your consistently insightful comments. I have a great deal of respect for the amount of time you have taken to not just think critically about these questions, but then unselfishly write out your analyses for the rest of us to deliberate. I have adjusted many probabilities successfully thanks to your insights. I am relatively new here, and the information you regularly shared helped this game take hold for me. Good luck...you will be missed.
My bloated ego has gotten the better of me just now, so here are my closing scores, the good, the not so good and the pathetic:) So following me in Geo questions was usually a good idea, whereas economics questions, sigh... I'm a big believer in debriefing, so here goes:
4-7-16 Scores
# competitors Leaderboards Rank Username No. of Questions Forecasted Brier Median Accuracy Score Rank / # competitors
2590 Iran 74 cmeinel 8 0.413 0.557 -0.633 0.0285714286
6087 Geopolitical 53 cmeinel 27 0.313 0.372 -1.092 0.0087070807
3311 Fun 209 cmeinel 6 0.473 0.56 -0.43 0.0631229236
5566 Economist 2358 cmeinel 13 0.262 0.26 0.184 0.4236435501
5996 Elections 779 cmeinel 4 0.474 0.557 -0.177 0.1299199466
Sum---> 58
Date Ended Question Participation Rate Your Score Median Score Relative Score
Dec 6, 2015 07:00AM Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela's National Assembly after the next legislative elections? 90% 0.429 0.721 -0.263
Sep 18, 2015 12:59AM Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action? 94% 0.17 0.17 0
Sep 21, 2015 12:59AM Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year? 50% 0.005 0.624 -0.31
Sep 17, 2015 12:59AM Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016? 80% 1.165 1.159 0.005
Sep 30, 2015 02:15PM Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016? 100% 0 0.006 -0.006
Oct 19, 2015 03:05PM Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from? 4% 0.005 0.471 -0.017
Oct 25, 2015 03:00PM How many seats in Poland's Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections? 85% 0.705 0.635 0.06
Nov 1, 2015 09:00PM Who will win the World Series? 6% 0.097 0.362 -0.015
Dec 2, 2015 07:00AM Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year? 97% 1.334 1.582 -0.239
Nov 22, 2015 06:00PM Who will win the presidential election in Argentina? 39% 0.419 0.877 -0.177
Oct 13, 2015 10:22AM Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015? 97% 0.281 0.011 0.261
Feb 9, 2016 06:00PM Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary? 77% 0.669 0.715 -0.035
Nov 30, 2015 07:00AM Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016? 26% 0.017 0.849 -0.213
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM Will "implementation day" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections? 99% 0.3 0.545 -0.242
Dec 16, 2015 12:00PM Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]? 92% 0.737 0.336 0.369
Dec 18, 2015 09:00AM Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016? 99% 0.824 0.254 0.565
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016? 98% 0 0 0
Oct 8, 2015 03:00PM Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October? 92% 0.388 0.917 -0.487
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will Montenegro's Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016? 96% 0 0 0
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year? 84% 0 0.016 -0.014
Nov 26, 2015 07:00AM Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving? 97% 0.552 0.155 0.386
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year? 100% 0 0.001 -0.001
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year? 59% 0 0.003 -0.002
Nov 1, 2015 03:00PM How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey's snap elections? 92% 0.637 0.75 -0.104
Jan 1, 2016 10:00AM What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016? 83% 0.396 0.332 0.052
Mar 30, 2016 10:00AM Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016? 96% 0.011 0.013 -0.002
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections? 3% 0.04 0.143 -0.003
Mar 24, 2016 11:00AM Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016? 68% 0.731 1.412 -0.464
Oct 5, 2015 12:26PM Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year? 36% 0.003 0.038 -0.013
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM Will the IAEA verify that Iran's uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016? 100% 0.029 0.103 -0.074
Jan 17, 2016 01:00PM Will restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016? 100% 0.008 0.037 -0.028
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016? 98% 0.237 0.314 -0.075
Feb 19, 2016 03:00PM Who will be the next managing director of the IMF? 97% 0.21 0.088 0.118
Jan 26, 2016 01:00PM Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter? 42% 1.508 1.337 0.071
Feb 2, 2016 03:00PM Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016? 62% 0 0.005 -0.003
Mar 15, 2016 06:00PM Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March? 27% 0.035 0.387 -0.096
Feb 6, 2016 03:00PM Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017? 99% 0.711 0.917 -0.203
Feb 7, 2016 06:00PM Which team will win the NFL’s Super Bowl in 2016? 17% 0.845 0.689 0.027
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year? 100% 0.032 0.01 0.022
Jan 31, 2016 03:00PM How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016? 85% 0.618 0.787 -0.143
Mar 30, 2016 03:00PM Will Moody's downgrade South Africa's government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016? 96% 0 0.003 -0.003
Mar 29, 2016 03:00PM Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016? 94% 0.021 0.114 -0.087
Feb 1, 2016 08:00PM Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus? 99% 0.245 0.066 0.178
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016? 99% 0.055 0.035 0.02
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016? 90% 0.006 0.029 -0.021
Feb 1, 2016 08:00PM Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February? 100% 0.286 0.426 -0.141
Feb 20, 2016 06:00PM Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016? 97% 0.06 0.146 -0.084
Feb 1, 2016 08:00PM Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February? 45% 0.907 0.698 0.095
Feb 18, 2016 03:00PM Who will win Uganda's next presidential election? 21% 0.005 0.005 0
Jan 5, 2016 06:30PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017? 84% 0.629 0.504 0.105
Dec 29, 2015 04:00PM As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea? 99% 0.337 0.538 -0.199
Dec 30, 2015 10:00AM What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015? 99% 0.408 0.259 0.148
Mar 2, 2016 03:00PM Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016? 36% 0.005 0.009 -0.001
Jan 1, 2016 07:00AM How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015? 83% 0.013 0.007 0.005
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program? 98% 0.532 0.816 -0.278
Feb 29, 2016 03:00PM Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016? 99% 0.023 0.036 -0.013
Dec 4, 2015 07:00AM Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016? 68% 0.276 0.107 0.115
Mar 31, 2016 03:00PM Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq? 83% 0.021 0.039 -0.015
Feb 20, 2016 11:00AM Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership? 65% 0.054 0.66 -0.396
Mar 31, 2016 03:00PM Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016? 87% 0.027 0.034 -0.006
Nov 21, 2015 07:00AM When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile? 100% 1.71 1.41 0.3
Mar 31, 2016 03:00PM Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016? 100% 0.05 0.035 0.015
Averages 0.3196451613 0.383016129 -1.556 ←-- sum
@cmeinel,
(also @Counterintelligence, @redacted, @ravel)
In the piece that @sevedb linked, the author says that " . . . stress is not linked solely to the amount of work we have, but rather on the poor quality of the relationships we develop with our colleagues". Absolutely! Every time this season that I have felt overwhelmed and frustrated, you (all of you) were there with some absolutely astonishingly insightful analysis that inspired me or some kind and encouraging word that gave me the boost I needed. Dedicated forecasters like you, who struggle to ferret out the information, correctly interpret it and respectfully debate with others, are what have made forecasting on this platform rewarding for me.
@cmeinel, without you, and dozens of superforecasters who have opted to follow you to new pastures, the rest of us are going to experience a lot more stress. YOU WILL BE MISSED! I wish you the very best.
@GJDrew: I am offended by your characterization of cmeinel's use of notifications as "spamming". What other option is there? Many forecasters have asked repeatedly for some mechanism whereby we can communicate directly with each other, to no avail. You are blaming the victim.
Of course I won't ever and haven't ever spammed the notifications. I only have contacted my current followers. In this case, because I have requested to be deleted from the game, I believed it was appropriate to explain why. Comparison class: when einsteinjs left the game, he notified me via email so I wouldn't be alarmed and I appreciated knowing this. However, by not taking the considerable time to scrape his long list of followers and notify them via the "@" notation, this inadvertently caused concern among others, which I sought to alleviate by posting to comments and via email to those who contacted me in this manner. That incident signaled to me that when a high performing, highly popular player leaves the game, and I salute einsteinjs for being better than me in this game, it would be appropriate to provide a reason.
Back to the question of why so many top players, indeed GJP superforecasters, have had difficulties with this game. Aside from the well hashed over issues with malformed questions and refusal of the admins to clarify many of them, I'm wondering whether we might be doing worse with more information. This is a major concern with the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition, in which we will be able to interact with a machine forecasting system. This would involve scraping the public Internet and using an AI system to parse the results, like taking a firehose of raw data and delivering an eyedropper of just the information you requested. Or so we hope we could do this and get better forecasts than ever.
Right now,in this game, we all can see who is on the leaderboards and copy them, what an easy way to be among the best of the best. Despite this, the resulting Brier scores often don't turn out so great. For example, right now my geopolitical leaderboard standing is #53 out of 6087 competitors. If 2/3 of them have been scored so far, that puts me in superforecaster country . Yet check out my Brier score for that challenge, 0.313. Pathetic! By contrast, I had access to a limited number of other people's forecasts in GJP season 4, and no data on how well they had been forecasting. Is it the questions, or could the huge amount of data and analyses in Gjopen be actually degrading our performances? How could we determine the cause in a scientifically valid, replicable manner?
Good Judgment Project leaderboard, final Season 4, beginning cohort, 3,000, ending cohort 2805
IFPs Date Closed # forecasts Meinel group Group minus Meinel
1244 India/Brazil UNSC 02/28/15 2 0.032 0.032 0
1383 Afghanistan Presidential Elections 09/20/14 0.254 0.254 0
1394 China: Second Thomas Shoal 12/30/14 26 0.076 0.101 -0.025
1399 Quebec Referendum 12/30/14 3 0.019 0.02 -0.001
1409 Brazil Presidential Runoff 10/05/14 0.078 0.078 0
1410 Scotland Referendum 09/18/14 0.147 0.147 0
1411 N.Korea Missile Test 05/31/15 1 0.441 0.447 -0.006
1412 TOPIX Closing Value 10/15/14 0.908 0.908 0
1413 Kurdistan Referendum 12/31/14 3 0.093 0.097 -0.004
1414 Arctic Sea Ice 09/15/14 17 0.075 0.807 -0.732
1415 Russia/Ukraine Confrontation 08/26/14 9 0.285 0.525 -0.24
1416 North Korea nuclear device 12/31/14 24 0.041 0.095 -0.054
1417 Kim Jong Un meeting head of state 05/31/15 70 0.211 0.305 -0.094
1418 Afghan Bilateral Security Agreement 09/29/14 3 0.422 0.422 0
1419 WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement 11/27/14 1.106 1.106 0
1420 China ADIZ in South China Sea 05/31/15 33 0.05 0.657 -0.607
1421 New Development Bank loans 05/31/15 2 0.613 0.618 -0.005
1423 China peak carbon 11/11/14 0.54 0.54 0
1424 Dollar-ruble exchange rate 09/15/14 0.15 0.15 0
1425 Gulf ambassadors 11/17/14 1 0.148 0.148 0
1427 Russia annexation of Ukraine 12/31/14 44 0.12 0.139 -0.019
1428 Sharif vacate office 12/31/14 2 0.163 0.166 -0.003
1429 Syria intervention 09/22/14 0.149 0.149 0
1430 Lethal confrontation in South China Sea 05/31/15 42 0.01 0.108 -0.098
1431 Iran centrifuges 11/24/14 31 0.079 0.329 -0.25
1432 VSTOXX index 10/09/14 0.448 0.448 0
1433 Oil volatility index 10/07/14 0.321 0.321 0
1434 South Stream Resumption 12/31/14 27 0.098 0.189 -0.091
1435 NATO MAP 05/31/15 20 0.021 0.135 -0.114
1436 ECB tests 10/25/14 1.081 1.081 0
1437 North Korea ferry 05/31/15 15 0.072 0.106 -0.034
1438 Russia sanctions to WTO 03/31/15 4 0.718 0.702 0.016
1439 Brazil economic growth 03/26/15 0.199 0.199 0
1440 Abbas vacate office 05/31/15 1 0.119 0.121 -0.002
1441 UK ambassador to Iran 05/31/15 19 0.123 0.14 -0.017
1442 Ebola in Europe 10/06/14 5 0.094 0.129 -0.035
1443 ISIS Reprisal 11/03/14 0.262 0.262 0
1444 East Asia Trilateral Summit 05/31/15 24 0.146 0.144 0.002
1445 USD Renminbi exchange rate 01/25/15 13 0.752 0.782 -0.03
1446 Russian food embargo 05/31/15 10 0.129 0.129 0
1448 Hong Kong Chief Executive 01/31/15 23 0.255 0.08 0.175
1449 China Police in Hong Kong 11/30/14 11 0.126 0.131 -0.005
1450 OPEC Cut Output 11/27/14 0.132 0.132 0
1451 India Pakistan Foreign Secretaries 01/31/15 2 0.094 0.096 -0.002
1452 ebola+containment 06/01/15 71 0.44 0.312 0.128
1453 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 11/10/14 0.177 0.177 0
1454 German GDP 11/13/14 0.416 0.416 0
1455 Iran Hosts Head of State 05/31/15 27 0.522 0.49 0.032
1456 Chinese Power Consumption 01/15/15 0.418 0.418 0
1457 Syrian No-Fly Zone 02/28/15 4 0.293 0.297 -0.004
1458 Okinawa governors race 11/15/14 0.652 0.652 0
1459 Goodluck Jonathan vacate office 05/28/15 8 0.82 0.927 -0.107
1460 Global temperatures 01/15/15 20 0.013 0.082 -0.069
1461 Iran/Pakistan Lethal confrontation 12/14/14 1 0.05 0.051 -0.001
1462 Iraqi National Guard 06/09/15 44 0.22 0.87 -0.65
1463 Americans in Iran 02/28/15 16 0.307 0.305 0.002
1464 Iron ore price 11/19/14 0.185 0.185 0
1465 Military operation in Eastern DRC 03/31/15 14 0.277 0.314 -0.037
1466 NATO Article 5 06/09/15 23 0.018 0.026 -0.008
1467 TPP Negotiations 06/09/15 15 0.083 0.098 -0.015
1468 Mistral delivery 05/31/15 21 0.04 0.067 -0.027
1469 UNSC - North Korea to ICC 06/09/15 36 0.181 0.836 -0.655
1470 Rajoy vacate office 05/31/15 1 0.063 0.063 0
1471 Russia ICBM test 11/28/14 0.265 0.265 0
1472 TTIP Negotiations 06/09/15 10 0.048 0.081 -0.033
1473 India/Israel FTA 06/09/15 1 0.215 0.217 -0.002
1474 Netanyahu Vacate Office 04/30/15 30 0.149 0.093 0.056
1475 Saudi private sector 06/03/15 3 0.272 0.277 -0.005
1476 Russia credit rating 01/26/15 25 0.023 0.08 -0.057
1477 IMF adding renminbi to SDR 06/09/15 10 0.336 0.292 0.044
1478 China refuse UK lawmakers 02/28/15 11 0.005 0.068 -0.063
1479 Ebola in Nigeria 03/15/15 3 0.286 0.287 -0.001
1480 Russia INF Treaty 06/09/15 28 0.076 0.116 -0.04
1481 H5N8 cases 12/14/14 10 0.233 0.224 0.009
1482 Fuzzy Set 1 - Jordan 06/01/15 25 0.086 0.132 -0.046
1483 Greek Parliament 01/25/15 1 0.147 0.147 0
1484 IMF Global Growth Figure 04/13/15 0.963 0.963 0
1485 Venezuela default 05/31/15 17 0.01 0.155 -0.145
1486 Fuzzy Set 1 - Cuba 06/01/15 13 0.006 0.02 -0.014
1487 East China Sea confrontation 06/09/15 26 0.026 0.026 0
1488 Dollar-Ruble take 2 05/01/15 49 0.052 0.016 0.036
1489 Russia-China Naval Exercises 05/10/15 21 0.684 0.455 0.229
1490 PBC-Fed Currency Swap 05/31/15 16 0.007 0.082 -0.075
1491 North Pole Claims 06/09/15 26 0.603 1.217 -0.614
1492 Myanmar Ceasefire 04/30/15 10 0.196 0.203 -0.007
1493 Petrobras Default 01/27/15 0.163 0.163 0
1494 Attack in Europe 02/02/15 0.162 0.162 0
1495 Korean Family Reunions 04/30/15 13 0.008 0.064 -0.056
1496 North Korea South Korea talks 03/31/15 14 0.08 0.06 0.02
1497 Fuzzy Set 1 - Iran 06/01/15 30 0.033 0.054 -0.021
1498 British Elections 05/07/15 5 0.313 0.303 0.01
1499 Libya Unity Government 05/31/15 23 0.025 0.066 -0.041
1500 S&P Downgrade Greece 02/06/15 5 0.041 0.465 -0.424
1501 Netanyahu Speaks to Congress 03/02/15 11 0.139 0.071 0.068
1502 Saudi/Yemen Conflict 03/24/15 11 1.152 1.073 0.079
1503 Iron Ore Spot Price 03/29/15 26 0.846 0.802 0.044
1504 Any Country Exit Eurozone 06/09/15 60 0.224 0.034 0.19
1505 Ethiopia Domestic Conflict 06/01/15 2 0.096 0.098 -0.002
1506 China Services PMI 06/03/15 6 0.481 0.349 0.132
1507 Dollar-Euro 03/06/15 13 0.064 0.094 -0.03
1508 China Blue Water Exercises 02/16/15 5 0.125 0.41 -0.285
1509 Sinai State of Emergency 04/25/15 18 0.011 0.035 -0.024
1511 Iran Sanctions 06/09/15 9 0.024 0.028 -0.004
1512 NK-Russia Military Exercises 06/09/15 12 0.04 0.051 -0.011
1513 Kirchner Vacate Office 05/31/15 2 0.038 0.039 -0.001
1514 Saudi Arabia - Iran Meeting 05/31/15 12 0.01 0.02 -0.01
1515 Russia on the SWIFT Exchange 05/31/15 15 0.036 0.102 -0.066
1516 Nigeria Elections 03/27/15 8 0.091 0.115 -0.024
1517 Oil Volatility Index 04/22/15 23 0.352 0.516 -0.164
1518 Maduro Vacate Office 05/31/15 1 0.011 0.011 0
1519 Iran Russia Weapons Sale 06/09/15 14 0.329 0.185 0.144
1520 China India Lethal Confrontation 05/31/15 13 0.001 0.005 -0.004
1521 Iran Nuclear Agreement 04/02/15 8 0.248 0.269 -0.021
1522 Chinese Yuan Trading Band 06/01/15 8 0.5 0.647 -0.147
1523 Putin Approval Rating 06/01/15 4 0.134 0.152 -0.018
1524 Abbott Vacate Office 05/31/15 1 0.023 0.024 -0.001
1525 Rezaian Release 06/09/15 15 0.079 0.117 -0.038
1526 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 03/28/15 7 0.062 0.376 -0.314
1527 Greece Bailout 04/30/15 16 0.501 0.814 -0.313
1528 Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate 06/09/15 29 0.196 0.444 -0.248
1529 Taliban Talks 06/09/15 30 0.259 0.518 -0.259
1530 UKIP Vote Percentage 05/07/15 7 0.178 0.189 -0.011
1531 Ground Offensive in Yemen 06/09/15 66 0.211 0.379 -0.168
1532 North Korea South Korea Talks 06/09/15 16 0.156 0.05 0.106
1533 Rousseff Vacate Office 06/09/15 2 0.012 0.016 -0.004
1534 WTI Spot Price 06/09/15 11 0.184 0.312 -0.128
1535 Incapacitation of al-Baghdadi 06/09/15 7 0.129 0.178 -0.049
1536 Renminbi Exchange Rate 06/01/15 12 0.019 0.094 -0.075
1537 Russia Release Detained Estonian 06/09/15 6 0.005 0.011 -0.006
1538 North Korea Release Detained South Korea 06/09/15 9 0.013 0.012 0.001
1539 UN Arms Embargo on South Sudan 06/09/15 6 0.423 0.254 0.169
1540 Ukraine Referendum 06/09/15 9 0.095 0.232 -0.137
1541 Lethal Confrontation in the Gulf of Aden 06/10/15 29 0.176 0.149 0.027
1542 Nikkei Index 06/10/15 17 0.179 0.149 0.03
1543 Assad Vacate Office 06/09/15 5 0.007 0.008 -0.001
1544 Gold Spot Price 06/10/15 19 0.123 0.169 -0.046
Averages 0.2211029412 0.2692279412
This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
Anyone who wants to follow me offline as I seek the Holy Grail of a more powerful aid to us forecasters, you can reach me at carolyn.meinel@cmeinel.com. Meanwhile I'll do my best to get OFF this game instead of being listed as inactive. So hasta vista to my followers who aren't already interacting with me outside this game: @Xsess @Dwight-Smith @thmnewman @Gil-Edgar @tmahoney @lsgold7 @Counterintelligence @Enthu @Hochstetler @Delorean @g @howard @facetious @The_Gnome @BG1 @DrStrangelove @Flyn1200 @PianoPicasso @AndersAsa @writeitdown @HW15 @tkimble @Doudtful @firemansghost @mparrault @lindsey @Dima-K @crntaylor @azivkovic @Mos @MattWard @AlexisTocqueville @luckyomari @Ermonic @Pstauble @Edwinian @Clairvoyance @ACurmudgeon @ @ts2m @M3T1tus @dada @GeneH @S1 @ConnorM @peterhansen90 @Bklyn_j @dniewood @deggen @Etsudo @praedico @Spyglass @Manfred @VoxVox @FuturoMAGE @subject1138 @MAA414 @richtyge @gkamstra @RCScheffers @Random @Spandrelbarca @Rene @gstaneff @fifty-sixty @spotter @dbealick @davidk @terobrandstaka @RobK @walt @Rectitude @malcmur @dominich @Konrad @balbec @Ioana @Raisinville @rjfmgy @Rote @TopQuark @ESR @Xu @sharms10k @Paul15 @NickLutz @Ritam @seveDB @Jean-Pierre @Bill @Agent0090 @RolandKofler @Aches @JoeG @madre @Paul_Theron @September @DariusX @AgentCarter @JeanP @tumbleweed @Reynard @SmallTown-Gal
Carolyn, it is an honor to know you and I for one appreciate you, and your family's years of service to make our world a better and safer place. This game and the previous Ace tournaments, have introduced me to the world of analysis, taught me many things, and illuminated my errors and deficiencies for all the world to see. The supers among us seem to rise to the top regardless of the structural flaws, like @einsteinjs, @Clairvoyance and others.
Try not to become a person of success, but rather try to become a person of value.
-- A. Einstein. --
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/what-does-success-at-work-really-mean?utm_content=bufferc1e0b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
====COMMENT====
1. I second @ravel; this game thought me many things too; the resolution process is weak, but.....
2. @meinel posts were insightful and appreciated by many, that should count
3. The Majiles question is difficult to understand, perhaps it should be just closed
4. I still like to do this regardless of the small problems, I enjoy doing it
5. I don't want to be a rat, and I'm no longer doing rat races (see article above)
Comment deleted on Apr 16, 2016 08:19PM UTC
You added a dimension of substance to this game with your consistently insightful comments. I have a great deal of respect for the amount of time you have taken to not just think critically about these questions, but then unselfishly write out your analyses for the rest of us to deliberate. I have adjusted many probabilities successfully thanks to your insights. I am relatively new here, and the information you regularly shared helped this game take hold for me. Good luck...you will be missed.
@cmeinel: We're all less without your input.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDkdjrEqu1I&nohtml5=False
My bloated ego has gotten the better of me just now, so here are my closing scores, the good, the not so good and the pathetic:) So following me in Geo questions was usually a good idea, whereas economics questions, sigh... I'm a big believer in debriefing, so here goes:
4-7-16 Scores
# competitors Leaderboards Rank Username No. of Questions Forecasted Brier Median Accuracy Score Rank / # competitors
2590 Iran 74 cmeinel 8 0.413 0.557 -0.633 0.0285714286
6087 Geopolitical 53 cmeinel 27 0.313 0.372 -1.092 0.0087070807
3311 Fun 209 cmeinel 6 0.473 0.56 -0.43 0.0631229236
5566 Economist 2358 cmeinel 13 0.262 0.26 0.184 0.4236435501
5996 Elections 779 cmeinel 4 0.474 0.557 -0.177 0.1299199466
Sum---> 58
Date Ended Question Participation Rate Your Score Median Score Relative Score
Dec 6, 2015 07:00AM Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela's National Assembly after the next legislative elections? 90% 0.429 0.721 -0.263
Sep 18, 2015 12:59AM Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action? 94% 0.17 0.17 0
Sep 21, 2015 12:59AM Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year? 50% 0.005 0.624 -0.31
Sep 17, 2015 12:59AM Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016? 80% 1.165 1.159 0.005
Sep 30, 2015 02:15PM Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016? 100% 0 0.006 -0.006
Oct 19, 2015 03:05PM Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from? 4% 0.005 0.471 -0.017
Oct 25, 2015 03:00PM How many seats in Poland's Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections? 85% 0.705 0.635 0.06
Nov 1, 2015 09:00PM Who will win the World Series? 6% 0.097 0.362 -0.015
Dec 2, 2015 07:00AM Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year? 97% 1.334 1.582 -0.239
Nov 22, 2015 06:00PM Who will win the presidential election in Argentina? 39% 0.419 0.877 -0.177
Oct 13, 2015 10:22AM Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015? 97% 0.281 0.011 0.261
Feb 9, 2016 06:00PM Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary? 77% 0.669 0.715 -0.035
Nov 30, 2015 07:00AM Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016? 26% 0.017 0.849 -0.213
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM Will "implementation day" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections? 99% 0.3 0.545 -0.242
Dec 16, 2015 12:00PM Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]? 92% 0.737 0.336 0.369
Dec 18, 2015 09:00AM Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016? 99% 0.824 0.254 0.565
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016? 98% 0 0 0
Oct 8, 2015 03:00PM Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October? 92% 0.388 0.917 -0.487
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will Montenegro's Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016? 96% 0 0 0
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year? 84% 0 0.016 -0.014
Nov 26, 2015 07:00AM Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving? 97% 0.552 0.155 0.386
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year? 100% 0 0.001 -0.001
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year? 59% 0 0.003 -0.002
Nov 1, 2015 03:00PM How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey's snap elections? 92% 0.637 0.75 -0.104
Jan 1, 2016 10:00AM What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016? 83% 0.396 0.332 0.052
Mar 30, 2016 10:00AM Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016? 96% 0.011 0.013 -0.002
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections? 3% 0.04 0.143 -0.003
Mar 24, 2016 11:00AM Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016? 68% 0.731 1.412 -0.464
Oct 5, 2015 12:26PM Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year? 36% 0.003 0.038 -0.013
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM Will the IAEA verify that Iran's uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016? 100% 0.029 0.103 -0.074
Jan 17, 2016 01:00PM Will restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016? 100% 0.008 0.037 -0.028
Jan 16, 2016 01:00PM Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016? 98% 0.237 0.314 -0.075
Feb 19, 2016 03:00PM Who will be the next managing director of the IMF? 97% 0.21 0.088 0.118
Jan 26, 2016 01:00PM Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter? 42% 1.508 1.337 0.071
Feb 2, 2016 03:00PM Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016? 62% 0 0.005 -0.003
Mar 15, 2016 06:00PM Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March? 27% 0.035 0.387 -0.096
Feb 6, 2016 03:00PM Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017? 99% 0.711 0.917 -0.203
Feb 7, 2016 06:00PM Which team will win the NFL’s Super Bowl in 2016? 17% 0.845 0.689 0.027
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year? 100% 0.032 0.01 0.022
Jan 31, 2016 03:00PM How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016? 85% 0.618 0.787 -0.143
Mar 30, 2016 03:00PM Will Moody's downgrade South Africa's government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016? 96% 0 0.003 -0.003
Mar 29, 2016 03:00PM Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016? 94% 0.021 0.114 -0.087
Feb 1, 2016 08:00PM Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus? 99% 0.245 0.066 0.178
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016? 99% 0.055 0.035 0.02
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016? 90% 0.006 0.029 -0.021
Feb 1, 2016 08:00PM Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February? 100% 0.286 0.426 -0.141
Feb 20, 2016 06:00PM Will China conduct naval exercises with any ASEAN member before 1 June 2016? 97% 0.06 0.146 -0.084
Feb 1, 2016 08:00PM Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February? 45% 0.907 0.698 0.095
Feb 18, 2016 03:00PM Who will win Uganda's next presidential election? 21% 0.005 0.005 0
Jan 5, 2016 06:30PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017? 84% 0.629 0.504 0.105
Dec 29, 2015 04:00PM As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea? 99% 0.337 0.538 -0.199
Dec 30, 2015 10:00AM What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015? 99% 0.408 0.259 0.148
Mar 2, 2016 03:00PM Will the UN Security Council pass a resolution expanding sanctions on North Korea before 1 June 2016? 36% 0.005 0.009 -0.001
Jan 1, 2016 07:00AM How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015? 83% 0.013 0.007 0.005
Dec 31, 2015 04:00PM Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program? 98% 0.532 0.816 -0.278
Feb 29, 2016 03:00PM Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016? 99% 0.023 0.036 -0.013
Dec 4, 2015 07:00AM Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016? 68% 0.276 0.107 0.115
Mar 31, 2016 03:00PM Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq? 83% 0.021 0.039 -0.015
Feb 20, 2016 11:00AM Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership? 65% 0.054 0.66 -0.396
Mar 31, 2016 03:00PM Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016? 87% 0.027 0.034 -0.006
Nov 21, 2015 07:00AM When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile? 100% 1.71 1.41 0.3
Mar 31, 2016 03:00PM Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016? 100% 0.05 0.035 0.015
Averages 0.3196451613 0.383016129 -1.556 ←-- sum
You can have your opinions, but please don't spam the @notifications.
@cmeinel,
(also @Counterintelligence, @redacted, @ravel)
In the piece that @sevedb linked, the author says that " . . . stress is not linked solely to the amount of work we have, but rather on the poor quality of the relationships we develop with our colleagues". Absolutely! Every time this season that I have felt overwhelmed and frustrated, you (all of you) were there with some absolutely astonishingly insightful analysis that inspired me or some kind and encouraging word that gave me the boost I needed. Dedicated forecasters like you, who struggle to ferret out the information, correctly interpret it and respectfully debate with others, are what have made forecasting on this platform rewarding for me.
@cmeinel, without you, and dozens of superforecasters who have opted to follow you to new pastures, the rest of us are going to experience a lot more stress. YOU WILL BE MISSED! I wish you the very best.
@GJDrew: I am offended by your characterization of cmeinel's use of notifications as "spamming". What other option is there? Many forecasters have asked repeatedly for some mechanism whereby we can communicate directly with each other, to no avail. You are blaming the victim.
Of course I won't ever and haven't ever spammed the notifications. I only have contacted my current followers. In this case, because I have requested to be deleted from the game, I believed it was appropriate to explain why. Comparison class: when einsteinjs left the game, he notified me via email so I wouldn't be alarmed and I appreciated knowing this. However, by not taking the considerable time to scrape his long list of followers and notify them via the "@" notation, this inadvertently caused concern among others, which I sought to alleviate by posting to comments and via email to those who contacted me in this manner. That incident signaled to me that when a high performing, highly popular player leaves the game, and I salute einsteinjs for being better than me in this game, it would be appropriate to provide a reason.
Back to the question of why so many top players, indeed GJP superforecasters, have had difficulties with this game. Aside from the well hashed over issues with malformed questions and refusal of the admins to clarify many of them, I'm wondering whether we might be doing worse with more information. This is a major concern with the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition, in which we will be able to interact with a machine forecasting system. This would involve scraping the public Internet and using an AI system to parse the results, like taking a firehose of raw data and delivering an eyedropper of just the information you requested. Or so we hope we could do this and get better forecasts than ever.
Right now,in this game, we all can see who is on the leaderboards and copy them, what an easy way to be among the best of the best. Despite this, the resulting Brier scores often don't turn out so great. For example, right now my geopolitical leaderboard standing is #53 out of 6087 competitors. If 2/3 of them have been scored so far, that puts me in superforecaster country . Yet check out my Brier score for that challenge, 0.313. Pathetic! By contrast, I had access to a limited number of other people's forecasts in GJP season 4, and no data on how well they had been forecasting. Is it the questions, or could the huge amount of data and analyses in Gjopen be actually degrading our performances? How could we determine the cause in a scientifically valid, replicable manner?
Good Judgment Project leaderboard, final Season 4, beginning cohort, 3,000, ending cohort 2805
IFPs Date Closed # forecasts Meinel group Group minus Meinel
1244 India/Brazil UNSC 02/28/15 2 0.032 0.032 0
1383 Afghanistan Presidential Elections 09/20/14 0.254 0.254 0
1394 China: Second Thomas Shoal 12/30/14 26 0.076 0.101 -0.025
1399 Quebec Referendum 12/30/14 3 0.019 0.02 -0.001
1409 Brazil Presidential Runoff 10/05/14 0.078 0.078 0
1410 Scotland Referendum 09/18/14 0.147 0.147 0
1411 N.Korea Missile Test 05/31/15 1 0.441 0.447 -0.006
1412 TOPIX Closing Value 10/15/14 0.908 0.908 0
1413 Kurdistan Referendum 12/31/14 3 0.093 0.097 -0.004
1414 Arctic Sea Ice 09/15/14 17 0.075 0.807 -0.732
1415 Russia/Ukraine Confrontation 08/26/14 9 0.285 0.525 -0.24
1416 North Korea nuclear device 12/31/14 24 0.041 0.095 -0.054
1417 Kim Jong Un meeting head of state 05/31/15 70 0.211 0.305 -0.094
1418 Afghan Bilateral Security Agreement 09/29/14 3 0.422 0.422 0
1419 WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement 11/27/14 1.106 1.106 0
1420 China ADIZ in South China Sea 05/31/15 33 0.05 0.657 -0.607
1421 New Development Bank loans 05/31/15 2 0.613 0.618 -0.005
1423 China peak carbon 11/11/14 0.54 0.54 0
1424 Dollar-ruble exchange rate 09/15/14 0.15 0.15 0
1425 Gulf ambassadors 11/17/14 1 0.148 0.148 0
1427 Russia annexation of Ukraine 12/31/14 44 0.12 0.139 -0.019
1428 Sharif vacate office 12/31/14 2 0.163 0.166 -0.003
1429 Syria intervention 09/22/14 0.149 0.149 0
1430 Lethal confrontation in South China Sea 05/31/15 42 0.01 0.108 -0.098
1431 Iran centrifuges 11/24/14 31 0.079 0.329 -0.25
1432 VSTOXX index 10/09/14 0.448 0.448 0
1433 Oil volatility index 10/07/14 0.321 0.321 0
1434 South Stream Resumption 12/31/14 27 0.098 0.189 -0.091
1435 NATO MAP 05/31/15 20 0.021 0.135 -0.114
1436 ECB tests 10/25/14 1.081 1.081 0
1437 North Korea ferry 05/31/15 15 0.072 0.106 -0.034
1438 Russia sanctions to WTO 03/31/15 4 0.718 0.702 0.016
1439 Brazil economic growth 03/26/15 0.199 0.199 0
1440 Abbas vacate office 05/31/15 1 0.119 0.121 -0.002
1441 UK ambassador to Iran 05/31/15 19 0.123 0.14 -0.017
1442 Ebola in Europe 10/06/14 5 0.094 0.129 -0.035
1443 ISIS Reprisal 11/03/14 0.262 0.262 0
1444 East Asia Trilateral Summit 05/31/15 24 0.146 0.144 0.002
1445 USD Renminbi exchange rate 01/25/15 13 0.752 0.782 -0.03
1446 Russian food embargo 05/31/15 10 0.129 0.129 0
1448 Hong Kong Chief Executive 01/31/15 23 0.255 0.08 0.175
1449 China Police in Hong Kong 11/30/14 11 0.126 0.131 -0.005
1450 OPEC Cut Output 11/27/14 0.132 0.132 0
1451 India Pakistan Foreign Secretaries 01/31/15 2 0.094 0.096 -0.002
1452 ebola+containment 06/01/15 71 0.44 0.312 0.128
1453 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 11/10/14 0.177 0.177 0
1454 German GDP 11/13/14 0.416 0.416 0
1455 Iran Hosts Head of State 05/31/15 27 0.522 0.49 0.032
1456 Chinese Power Consumption 01/15/15 0.418 0.418 0
1457 Syrian No-Fly Zone 02/28/15 4 0.293 0.297 -0.004
1458 Okinawa governors race 11/15/14 0.652 0.652 0
1459 Goodluck Jonathan vacate office 05/28/15 8 0.82 0.927 -0.107
1460 Global temperatures 01/15/15 20 0.013 0.082 -0.069
1461 Iran/Pakistan Lethal confrontation 12/14/14 1 0.05 0.051 -0.001
1462 Iraqi National Guard 06/09/15 44 0.22 0.87 -0.65
1463 Americans in Iran 02/28/15 16 0.307 0.305 0.002
1464 Iron ore price 11/19/14 0.185 0.185 0
1465 Military operation in Eastern DRC 03/31/15 14 0.277 0.314 -0.037
1466 NATO Article 5 06/09/15 23 0.018 0.026 -0.008
1467 TPP Negotiations 06/09/15 15 0.083 0.098 -0.015
1468 Mistral delivery 05/31/15 21 0.04 0.067 -0.027
1469 UNSC - North Korea to ICC 06/09/15 36 0.181 0.836 -0.655
1470 Rajoy vacate office 05/31/15 1 0.063 0.063 0
1471 Russia ICBM test 11/28/14 0.265 0.265 0
1472 TTIP Negotiations 06/09/15 10 0.048 0.081 -0.033
1473 India/Israel FTA 06/09/15 1 0.215 0.217 -0.002
1474 Netanyahu Vacate Office 04/30/15 30 0.149 0.093 0.056
1475 Saudi private sector 06/03/15 3 0.272 0.277 -0.005
1476 Russia credit rating 01/26/15 25 0.023 0.08 -0.057
1477 IMF adding renminbi to SDR 06/09/15 10 0.336 0.292 0.044
1478 China refuse UK lawmakers 02/28/15 11 0.005 0.068 -0.063
1479 Ebola in Nigeria 03/15/15 3 0.286 0.287 -0.001
1480 Russia INF Treaty 06/09/15 28 0.076 0.116 -0.04
1481 H5N8 cases 12/14/14 10 0.233 0.224 0.009
1482 Fuzzy Set 1 - Jordan 06/01/15 25 0.086 0.132 -0.046
1483 Greek Parliament 01/25/15 1 0.147 0.147 0
1484 IMF Global Growth Figure 04/13/15 0.963 0.963 0
1485 Venezuela default 05/31/15 17 0.01 0.155 -0.145
1486 Fuzzy Set 1 - Cuba 06/01/15 13 0.006 0.02 -0.014
1487 East China Sea confrontation 06/09/15 26 0.026 0.026 0
1488 Dollar-Ruble take 2 05/01/15 49 0.052 0.016 0.036
1489 Russia-China Naval Exercises 05/10/15 21 0.684 0.455 0.229
1490 PBC-Fed Currency Swap 05/31/15 16 0.007 0.082 -0.075
1491 North Pole Claims 06/09/15 26 0.603 1.217 -0.614
1492 Myanmar Ceasefire 04/30/15 10 0.196 0.203 -0.007
1493 Petrobras Default 01/27/15 0.163 0.163 0
1494 Attack in Europe 02/02/15 0.162 0.162 0
1495 Korean Family Reunions 04/30/15 13 0.008 0.064 -0.056
1496 North Korea South Korea talks 03/31/15 14 0.08 0.06 0.02
1497 Fuzzy Set 1 - Iran 06/01/15 30 0.033 0.054 -0.021
1498 British Elections 05/07/15 5 0.313 0.303 0.01
1499 Libya Unity Government 05/31/15 23 0.025 0.066 -0.041
1500 S&P Downgrade Greece 02/06/15 5 0.041 0.465 -0.424
1501 Netanyahu Speaks to Congress 03/02/15 11 0.139 0.071 0.068
1502 Saudi/Yemen Conflict 03/24/15 11 1.152 1.073 0.079
1503 Iron Ore Spot Price 03/29/15 26 0.846 0.802 0.044
1504 Any Country Exit Eurozone 06/09/15 60 0.224 0.034 0.19
1505 Ethiopia Domestic Conflict 06/01/15 2 0.096 0.098 -0.002
1506 China Services PMI 06/03/15 6 0.481 0.349 0.132
1507 Dollar-Euro 03/06/15 13 0.064 0.094 -0.03
1508 China Blue Water Exercises 02/16/15 5 0.125 0.41 -0.285
1509 Sinai State of Emergency 04/25/15 18 0.011 0.035 -0.024
1511 Iran Sanctions 06/09/15 9 0.024 0.028 -0.004
1512 NK-Russia Military Exercises 06/09/15 12 0.04 0.051 -0.011
1513 Kirchner Vacate Office 05/31/15 2 0.038 0.039 -0.001
1514 Saudi Arabia - Iran Meeting 05/31/15 12 0.01 0.02 -0.01
1515 Russia on the SWIFT Exchange 05/31/15 15 0.036 0.102 -0.066
1516 Nigeria Elections 03/27/15 8 0.091 0.115 -0.024
1517 Oil Volatility Index 04/22/15 23 0.352 0.516 -0.164
1518 Maduro Vacate Office 05/31/15 1 0.011 0.011 0
1519 Iran Russia Weapons Sale 06/09/15 14 0.329 0.185 0.144
1520 China India Lethal Confrontation 05/31/15 13 0.001 0.005 -0.004
1521 Iran Nuclear Agreement 04/02/15 8 0.248 0.269 -0.021
1522 Chinese Yuan Trading Band 06/01/15 8 0.5 0.647 -0.147
1523 Putin Approval Rating 06/01/15 4 0.134 0.152 -0.018
1524 Abbott Vacate Office 05/31/15 1 0.023 0.024 -0.001
1525 Rezaian Release 06/09/15 15 0.079 0.117 -0.038
1526 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 03/28/15 7 0.062 0.376 -0.314
1527 Greece Bailout 04/30/15 16 0.501 0.814 -0.313
1528 Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate 06/09/15 29 0.196 0.444 -0.248
1529 Taliban Talks 06/09/15 30 0.259 0.518 -0.259
1530 UKIP Vote Percentage 05/07/15 7 0.178 0.189 -0.011
1531 Ground Offensive in Yemen 06/09/15 66 0.211 0.379 -0.168
1532 North Korea South Korea Talks 06/09/15 16 0.156 0.05 0.106
1533 Rousseff Vacate Office 06/09/15 2 0.012 0.016 -0.004
1534 WTI Spot Price 06/09/15 11 0.184 0.312 -0.128
1535 Incapacitation of al-Baghdadi 06/09/15 7 0.129 0.178 -0.049
1536 Renminbi Exchange Rate 06/01/15 12 0.019 0.094 -0.075
1537 Russia Release Detained Estonian 06/09/15 6 0.005 0.011 -0.006
1538 North Korea Release Detained South Korea 06/09/15 9 0.013 0.012 0.001
1539 UN Arms Embargo on South Sudan 06/09/15 6 0.423 0.254 0.169
1540 Ukraine Referendum 06/09/15 9 0.095 0.232 -0.137
1541 Lethal Confrontation in the Gulf of Aden 06/10/15 29 0.176 0.149 0.027
1542 Nikkei Index 06/10/15 17 0.179 0.149 0.03
1543 Assad Vacate Office 06/09/15 5 0.007 0.008 -0.001
1544 Gold Spot Price 06/10/15 19 0.123 0.169 -0.046
Averages 0.2211029412 0.2692279412
Rank Forecaster Score
1 *** 0.216
2 *** 0.219
3 cmeinel 0.221
4 *** 0.227
5 *** 0.234
6 *** 0.238
7 *** 0.241
8 *** 0.246
9 *** 0.249
10 *** 0.251
11 *** 0.252
12 *** 0.253
13 *** 0.253
14 *** 0.253
15 *** 0.253
16 *** 0.256
17 *** 0.257
18 *** 0.258
19 *** 0.258
20 *** 0.258
* Leaderboard contains only those who have answered at least 10 scored questions