This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
So, @Inactive-43, you've come to the House of Black and White, and the staff won't offer you a beverage? You should ask @Resonancia and @k13rkeg44rd for advice on how to get served!
How many people were active participants in GJP seasons 1-4? It's normal for most accounts to be inactive on a site like this one, where anyone can join, but you have to work consistently at something to stay in the game. The large majority of users are inactive at any given time. But, even if 90% are inactive, there would still be about 2300 active users at this time. How does that compare to previous seasons? And is the purpose of this site, as some have suggested, to find Superforecasters for the other, more exclusive, site? Whatever the case may be, the number of core participants on this site may not be much different than previous seasons.
Well, inactive-43 sure beats poor zombie einsteinjs, who was one of the best of the best superforecasters [tm Good Judgment, Inc.] Why can't they make any of this simple?
Oh, yeah, @k13rkeg44rd? Time will tell. Now the experiment is whether the aging forecasts of inactive-43 will continue to be scored as forecast resolutions arrive, slowly driving down the rankings on the leaderboards until... or maybe not. There are so many fascinating experiments to be run against this game. To begin the countdown to total despair by inactive-43, here are today's leaderboard stats:
Under their ranking system the best ranks are for people who guess a single question right and then retire without fanfare. Maybe that is exactly what they want out of their crowd, 23000 people who know something about one thing, not 50 Jack of all trades who do the best they can on a lot of things. Also maybe as a public opinion polling site they want the untrained sampling of a large population. In this respect, people trying to be super may actually just be noise that has to be factored out, certainly not catered to. Since we don't actually know what the point of this site is, I think we should be open to such alternate interpretations. Finding the Occam's razor interpretation may ease your pain, @Inactive-43.
Wow, @ravel, they are catching up with you hacker types awfully fast tonight. I wonder how many people with wheel group permissions are watching us right now? Or am I dating myself by reference to wheel group?
This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
Anyone who wants to follow me offline as I seek the Holy Grail of a more powerful aid to us forecasters, you can reach me at carolyn.meinel@cmeinel.com. Meanwhile I'll do my best to get OFF this game instead of being listed as inactive. So hasta vista to my followers who aren't already interacting with me outside this game: @Xsess @Dwight-Smith @thmnewman @Gil-Edgar @tmahoney @lsgold7 @Counterintelligence @Enthu @Hochstetler @Delorean @g @howard @facetious @The_Gnome @BG1 @DrStrangelove @Flyn1200 @PianoPicasso @AndersAsa @writeitdown @HW15 @tkimble @Doudtful @firemansghost @mparrault @lindsey @Dima-K @crntaylor @azivkovic @Mos @MattWard @AlexisTocqueville @luckyomari @Ermonic @Pstauble @Edwinian @Clairvoyance @ACurmudgeon @ @ts2m @M3T1tus @dada @GeneH @S1 @ConnorM @peterhansen90 @Bklyn_j @dniewood @deggen @Etsudo @praedico @Spyglass @Manfred @VoxVox @FuturoMAGE @subject1138 @MAA414 @richtyge @gkamstra @RCScheffers @Random @Spandrelbarca @Rene @gstaneff @fifty-sixty @spotter @dbealick @davidk @terobrandstaka @RobK @walt @Rectitude @malcmur @dominich @Konrad @balbec @Ioana @Raisinville @rjfmgy @Rote @TopQuark @ESR @Xu @sharms10k @Paul15 @NickLutz @Ritam @seveDB @Jean-Pierre @Bill @Agent0090 @RolandKofler @Aches @JoeG @madre @Paul_Theron @September @DariusX @AgentCarter @JeanP @tumbleweed @Reynard @SmallTown-Gal
Comment deleted on Apr 16, 2016 08:17PM UTC
So, @Inactive-43, you've come to the House of Black and White, and the staff won't offer you a beverage? You should ask @Resonancia and @k13rkeg44rd for advice on how to get served!
@ravel: If your claim is true, I commend you on your abilities.
Comment deleted on Apr 16, 2016 08:17PM UTC
How many people were active participants in GJP seasons 1-4? It's normal for most accounts to be inactive on a site like this one, where anyone can join, but you have to work consistently at something to stay in the game. The large majority of users are inactive at any given time. But, even if 90% are inactive, there would still be about 2300 active users at this time. How does that compare to previous seasons? And is the purpose of this site, as some have suggested, to find Superforecasters for the other, more exclusive, site? Whatever the case may be, the number of core participants on this site may not be much different than previous seasons.
Well, inactive-43 sure beats poor zombie einsteinjs, who was one of the best of the best superforecasters [tm Good Judgment, Inc.] Why can't they make any of this simple?
Oh, yeah, @k13rkeg44rd? Time will tell. Now the experiment is whether the aging forecasts of inactive-43 will continue to be scored as forecast resolutions arrive, slowly driving down the rankings on the leaderboards until... or maybe not. There are so many fascinating experiments to be run against this game. To begin the countdown to total despair by inactive-43, here are today's leaderboard stats:
# Competitors Leaderboards Rank # Qs Brier Median Score Relative Score Rank / total players
2616 Iran 58 9 0.402 0.543 -0.742 0.0221712538
3340 Fun 209 6 0.473 0.56 -0.43 0.0625748503
6173 Geopolitical 41 28 0.313 0.375 -1.201 0.0066418273
5639 Economist 2358 13 0.262 0.26 0.184 0.4181592481
5996 Elections 779 4 0.474 0.557 -0.177 0.1299199466
Under their ranking system the best ranks are for people who guess a single question right and then retire without fanfare. Maybe that is exactly what they want out of their crowd, 23000 people who know something about one thing, not 50 Jack of all trades who do the best they can on a lot of things. Also maybe as a public opinion polling site they want the untrained sampling of a large population. In this respect, people trying to be super may actually just be noise that has to be factored out, certainly not catered to. Since we don't actually know what the point of this site is, I think we should be open to such alternate interpretations. Finding the Occam's razor interpretation may ease your pain, @Inactive-43.
Comment deleted on Apr 16, 2016 08:17PM UTC
Wow, @ravel, they are catching up with you hacker types awfully fast tonight. I wonder how many people with wheel group permissions are watching us right now? Or am I dating myself by reference to wheel group?