This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
@cmeinel, Thanks you for your encouraging words. And thank you for calculating my stats; I am poleaxed that by your calculations I was in the top 4% for the period in question. My characterization of myself as "mediocre" stems from the Accuracy Score that GJO calculated in March. I'm glad I'm doing so much better than I thought I was.
@Anneinak Thank you for catching my typo and alerting rfmgy to my comment about him. I am confident that you, as one of the top forecasters and the most upvoted of us all, will more than fill my shoes. @ravel, the aspect of your forecasting I appreciate the most is what you just posted: you use your imagination to look for the events that appear highly unlikely, yet potentially with huge consequences. IARPA just held the kickoff meeting Monday (April 4) for the three contractors who will conduct a new research program looking at these sorts of things, but limited to insider threat scenarios, SCITE http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/scite. I'm sure you can think of all sorts of possibilities. Those darn unknown unknowns!
Um, let's not forget Valette, who came in early and got herself deleted early, with little fanfare. There's a proper hole around user ID 15 or 16 with her name on it. Maybe she went to the VIP Room that Dima-K confirmed the existence of. GJI is a business. This website serves some function in that business. We don't truly know what. GJOpen is not the whole business. GJI came to being as a consequence of some funded research. Some guinea pigs in that research felt special. Apologies people, but grow up: you weren't any more or less special as a guinea pig than you are now as a consumer of a social media site. If you're having fun, that's great, but keep it in perspective. And I, for one, will not be really excited for forecasters/analysts (if not for forecasting/analysis), when Google is replaced in the next iteration by Watson. Eventually, as that progresses, y'all are gonna be out of a pretend job.
@000 Our Miss V!
Valette crushed the field. Had a friend in a brier format and knew someone from Stratfor. She said she was really good in the fluid intelligence category, Smart lady and she knew it. Paid a little lip service to Haruspex before GJO. Call it a peck on the cheek. @cmeinel I just read that machines can do the Raven's Progressive Matrix now. With V on their side, I'll give this round to the humans. This is her last avatar and IMO the best. http://i358.photobucket.com/albums/oo21/jonjonzz/image%201_zpscpawspz6.jpg
I don't think they would necessarily be deleted. That assumes a design decision which may not be the one they made, also perhaps some action on part of GJO, which can take a month or more to score a closed question, much less custom-delete an angry customer.
I don't mind my comments remaining, but how useful would they be? They are aging and buried under the activities of the 15% or so out of of the 23.833 members who have made two or more comments so far. Note that some 2/3 of all those who have signed up just look around and depart. The place is almost a masoleum.
Speaking of which, I can't find a way to exit this game. So how did Valette, IARPA program manager Steve Rieber, and Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman manage to get deleted?
Also, it looks like one of the recently scored questions was scored wrong -- French soldiers in Syria or Iraq. Or maybe it was scored correctly by some secret formula. If scored incorrectly, then I blew the forecast, along with most other participants.
This infuriatingly undefined question is one of the reasons I decided I don't have time to struggle with this game. I like having a reputation as a superforecaster from GJP4, but this game seems designed to teach us humility by forcing us in cases like this to forecast the organizers of this game instead of the apparent question. Instead, now I'm concentrating on the upcoming Hybrid Forecasting Competition. I hope to help design one of the competing versions of this game, but if I turn out to not be on a winning proposal team, then I'll jump at the chance to forecast on some other contractor's version of the game. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/hfc
Anyone who wants to follow me offline as I seek the Holy Grail of a more powerful aid to us forecasters, you can reach me at carolyn.meinel@cmeinel.com. Meanwhile I'll do my best to get OFF this game instead of being listed as inactive. So hasta vista to my followers who aren't already interacting with me outside this game: @Xsess @Dwight-Smith @thmnewman @Gil-Edgar @tmahoney @lsgold7 @Counterintelligence @Enthu @Hochstetler @Delorean @g @howard @facetious @The_Gnome @BG1 @DrStrangelove @Flyn1200 @PianoPicasso @AndersAsa @writeitdown @HW15 @tkimble @Doudtful @firemansghost @mparrault @lindsey @Dima-K @crntaylor @azivkovic @Mos @MattWard @AlexisTocqueville @luckyomari @Ermonic @Pstauble @Edwinian @Clairvoyance @ACurmudgeon @ @ts2m @M3T1tus @dada @GeneH @S1 @ConnorM @peterhansen90 @Bklyn_j @dniewood @deggen @Etsudo @praedico @Spyglass @Manfred @VoxVox @FuturoMAGE @subject1138 @MAA414 @richtyge @gkamstra @RCScheffers @Random @Spandrelbarca @Rene @gstaneff @fifty-sixty @spotter @dbealick @davidk @terobrandstaka @RobK @walt @Rectitude @malcmur @dominich @Konrad @balbec @Ioana @Raisinville @rjfmgy @Rote @TopQuark @ESR @Xu @sharms10k @Paul15 @NickLutz @Ritam @seveDB @Jean-Pierre @Bill @Agent0090 @RolandKofler @Aches @JoeG @madre @Paul_Theron @September @DariusX @AgentCarter @JeanP @tumbleweed @Reynard @SmallTown-Gal
@cmeinel, Thanks you for your encouraging words. And thank you for calculating my stats; I am poleaxed that by your calculations I was in the top 4% for the period in question. My characterization of myself as "mediocre" stems from the Accuracy Score that GJO calculated in March. I'm glad I'm doing so much better than I thought I was.
@Anneinak Thank you for catching my typo and alerting rfmgy to my comment about him. I am confident that you, as one of the top forecasters and the most upvoted of us all, will more than fill my shoes. @ravel, the aspect of your forecasting I appreciate the most is what you just posted: you use your imagination to look for the events that appear highly unlikely, yet potentially with huge consequences. IARPA just held the kickoff meeting Monday (April 4) for the three contractors who will conduct a new research program looking at these sorts of things, but limited to insider threat scenarios, SCITE http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/scite. I'm sure you can think of all sorts of possibilities. Those darn unknown unknowns!
Comment deleted on Apr 16, 2016 08:18PM UTC
Um, let's not forget Valette, who came in early and got herself deleted early, with little fanfare. There's a proper hole around user ID 15 or 16 with her name on it. Maybe she went to the VIP Room that Dima-K confirmed the existence of. GJI is a business. This website serves some function in that business. We don't truly know what. GJOpen is not the whole business. GJI came to being as a consequence of some funded research. Some guinea pigs in that research felt special. Apologies people, but grow up: you weren't any more or less special as a guinea pig than you are now as a consumer of a social media site. If you're having fun, that's great, but keep it in perspective. And I, for one, will not be really excited for forecasters/analysts (if not for forecasting/analysis), when Google is replaced in the next iteration by Watson. Eventually, as that progresses, y'all are gonna be out of a pretend job.
@000: You have drunk the kool-aid. By the time Watson is capable of structuring novel problems, it will have been disintermediated out of existence.
@redacted, maybe more along the lines, at least at level of hype, is kensho.com
@000 Our Miss V!
Valette crushed the field. Had a friend in a brier format and knew someone from Stratfor. She said she was really good in the fluid intelligence category, Smart lady and she knew it. Paid a little lip service to Haruspex before GJO. Call it a peck on the cheek. @cmeinel I just read that machines can do the Raven's Progressive Matrix now. With V on their side, I'll give this round to the humans. This is her last avatar and IMO the best. http://i358.photobucket.com/albums/oo21/jonjonzz/image%201_zpscpawspz6.jpg
@cmeinel Thanks for alerting me. But if you delete your account, all of your comments would be deleted. That would be unfortunate, I think.
I don't think they would necessarily be deleted. That assumes a design decision which may not be the one they made, also perhaps some action on part of GJO, which can take a month or more to score a closed question, much less custom-delete an angry customer.
I don't mind my comments remaining, but how useful would they be? They are aging and buried under the activities of the 15% or so out of of the 23.833 members who have made two or more comments so far. Note that some 2/3 of all those who have signed up just look around and depart. The place is almost a masoleum.
Speaking of which, I can't find a way to exit this game. So how did Valette, IARPA program manager Steve Rieber, and Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman manage to get deleted?
Also, it looks like one of the recently scored questions was scored wrong -- French soldiers in Syria or Iraq. Or maybe it was scored correctly by some secret formula. If scored incorrectly, then I blew the forecast, along with most other participants.