There_Will_Be_Games
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Between 12 July and 31 December 2016, inclusive
95% (+10%)
Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive
5% (-10%)
Not before 1 July 2017

At the last minute if at all possible. The government isn’t even close to ready, but the people have spoken. The Brexiteers want to get on with it, and May promised that they’d pull the trigger by the end of March, but parliament’s the one that has to make it official, and they’re not interested in keeping May’s promise. Still, if they drag too much, the people will remember. Unless they come up with a brilliant excuse to continue the stall, it’s a near certainty they’ll do it by July.

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username