Started Jul 12, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC

When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?

To invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon a member state must notify the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the European Union (Washington Post, Lisbon Treaty). Although a majority of voters in the United Kingdom's June 2016 referendum on European Union membership voted to leave the EU (BBC), it is unclear when Article 50 will be invoked or if it will govern the UK's withdrawal process (Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times). Recommended Questions Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom? Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU? What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016? This question was closed as "Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017" with an end date of 29 March 2017 (Reuters, CNN, BBC). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between 12 July and 31 December 2016, inclusive 0%
Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive 99%
Not before 1 July 2017 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 771
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 3050
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.142
2.
-0.139
3.
-0.138
4.
-0.137
5.
-0.137

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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