Started Jul 12, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 30, 2016 06:00PM UTC

What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?

This question was closed on "Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive" with an end date of 30 December 2016 (Bloomberg). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


The United Kingdom's June 2016 vote to leave the European Union triggered a sharp slide in the value of the British pound relative to the US dollar (Washington Post). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg. Recommended Questions Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom? Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU? When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.20 2%
Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive 98%
More than 1.30 but less than 1.40 0%
Between 1.40 and 1.50, inclusive 0%
More than 1.50 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 498
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 2062
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.161
3.
-0.153
4.
-0.142
5.
-0.137

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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