Started Jul 12, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

  The Economist asks

Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom?

In the United Kingdom's June 2016 referendum on European Union (EU) membership, a majority of voters in Scotland backed the losing side. The United Kingdom's planned exit from the EU has caused some Scottish leaders to call for another vote on independence, less than two years after nearly 56 percent of voters cast ballots against it (Reuters, The Telegraph, Scotland's Referendum). Recommended Questions Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU? When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty? What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?


Scotland has not set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. This question closed as "b) no" with and end date of 30 June 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Question clarification
Issued on 03/30/17 04:24pm
The question does not require the referendum to be legally binding, only that a date for a referendum be set.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1454
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 3649
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.046
2.
-0.046
3.
-0.045
4.
-0.045
5.
-0.045

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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