Re: Dart Throwing Chimp -- pretty sure Jay closed the blog: "I’m shutting down the blog. Well, I won’t be publishing new posts, anyway; the archived material will remain online, in case anyone finds it useful." I did see him write a post on 538, though, and expect that we might see some of his stuff pop up in different places.
don't want to pander (huh, not sure if it's atually the right word I am looking for. nighttime here for me.) too hard, but there is this by jay and it's a good cause... so if anyone doesn't feel busy enough here...: http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools ;-)
All show my Brier score for the IFP, but show N/A for Participation Rate, Median Score, and Accuracy Score.
I'm sure they're still in the process of populating the scores for these IFPs, but I thought I'd check-in with the group. Also of note, I noticed that last night there was the Rezaian/SWIFT IFPs and then today, they added the IAEA IFP.
But no I don't see them disclosing an actual attack, too sensitive, unless tattle-tale on someone else or boasting by the attacker.
@ravel, thank you for that. Well played.
@ravel - namaste
@morrell Dry and droll humor is hard to come by. http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/slow_clap_citizen_kane.gif
@ravel I took a screenshot so I can follow your mantra!!
I am not through with it, but this whole lecture on forecasting and identifying different patterns in data is just great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9dhcfIyOFc
Speaking of Dart Throwing Chimps, have any of you followed this blog? Cool info!
https://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/tag/pitf/
In general: Jay Ulfelders dartthrowingchimp-blog is a must read.
So *this* is where the conversation moved... ;-)
Re: Dart Throwing Chimp -- pretty sure Jay closed the blog: "I’m shutting down the blog. Well, I won’t be publishing new posts, anyway; the archived material will remain online, in case anyone finds it useful." I did see him write a post on 538, though, and expect that we might see some of his stuff pop up in different places.
don't want to pander (huh, not sure if it's atually the right word I am looking for. nighttime here for me.) too hard, but there is this by jay and it's a good cause... so if anyone doesn't feel busy enough here...: http://www.earlywarningproject.com/opinion_pools ;-)
@Sjens, two nice links, thanks!
Hey all -- anyone else have *incomplete* resolved IFPs on their profile?
*Rezaian --> https://www.gjopen.com/questions/7-will-iran-release-jason-rezaian-before-31-october-2015
*SWIFT --> https://www.gjopen.com/questions/29-will-restrictions-on-iran-s-access-to-swift-be-lifted-before-1-august-2016
*IAEA --> https://www.gjopen.com/questions/52-will-the-iaea-verify-that-iran-s-uranium-stockpile-has-been-reduced-to-less-than-300-kg-of-low-enriched-uranium-before-1-june-2016
All show my Brier score for the IFP, but show N/A for Participation Rate, Median Score, and Accuracy Score.
I'm sure they're still in the process of populating the scores for these IFPs, but I thought I'd check-in with the group. Also of note, I noticed that last night there was the Rezaian/SWIFT IFPs and then today, they added the IAEA IFP.