Time for some updating. Sam Wang points us to some data that suggests HRC has a tad better than a 4-to-1 advantage over Mr. Trump in November. Why? The short answer has to do with the fact that direct match-up polls have started to have predictive value (because of our current place in the election cycle). The long answer is worth reading, but Wang surely does a better job of explaining it[1] than I would, so I suggest taking him for a spin, if you're into these things.
I think that Wong's input is useful, but only one of many sources from which to draw. Foxiness militates against using only a single model or theory to try to predict very messy events like a presidential election. (Or is relying of foxiness itself also "one big thing"? Never mind.) Other input, like the fact that it's unusual for a single party to hold the White House from more than 2 terms at a time, suggests a rather different outcome. We'll see....
Time for some updating. Sam Wang points us to some data that suggests HRC has a tad better than a 4-to-1 advantage over Mr. Trump in November. Why? The short answer has to do with the fact that direct match-up polls have started to have predictive value (because of our current place in the election cycle). The long answer is worth reading, but Wang surely does a better job of explaining it[1] than I would, so I suggest taking him for a spin, if you're into these things.
I think that Wong's input is useful, but only one of many sources from which to draw. Foxiness militates against using only a single model or theory to try to predict very messy events like a presidential election. (Or is relying of foxiness itself also "one big thing"? Never mind.) Other input, like the fact that it's unusual for a single party to hold the White House from more than 2 terms at a time, suggests a rather different outcome. We'll see....
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[1] http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/