Hansa
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
48% (-10%)
A Democrat
44% (+14%)
A Republican
8% (-4%)
Other

Readjusting earlier prediction to reflect recent interest in alternative candidates, and some studies showing potential for shift in electoral votes. Overall, I would expect the popular vote to be quite close. As we saw with the Brexit vote, anti-immigrant feelings, a desire for revenge, and fear, can drive outcomes in directions not captured in polling. The bigger issue will still remain voter turn-out, which I feel will be small due to distaste in the political process.

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