Before 2019, will the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General name a suspected author of the New York Times "Resistance" op-ed?

Started Sep 14, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
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On 5 September 2018, the New York Times published an op-ed from an anonymous writer cited as a senior official in the Trump administration (NY Times). Validation and/or acknowledgment by the suspected author is not required for resolution. Twitter communication will count. If the identity of the author is revealed first (e.g., by the New York Times or the author coming forward) the question will close as no.  Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2019. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 171
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 428
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.15
2.
-0.149
3.
-0.117
4.
-0.116
5.
-0.113

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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