Started Sep 28, 2018 11:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2019. For more information on the resolution of this EWP question and its companion questions, see "Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: October 1, 2018-September 30, 2019."

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 25.00%
No 75.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 83
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.026
2.
-0.026
3.
-0.025
4.
-0.025
5.
-0.025

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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