What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?

Started Nov 16, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Outcome will be determined by the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2019 Scorecard, typically published in September. For the one-year period ending 30 June 2018, 57.98% of all domestic U.S. equity funds were outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index. The relevant figure for 2018 can be found on page 4 of the SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2018 Scorecard, in the table labeled Report 1, first row, "All Domestic Funds". Published reports can be found here. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help..


The question closed "More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%" with a closing date of 1 July 2019 (Spindicies.com).

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 40.00% 1%
Between 40.00% and 60.00%, inclusive 56%
More than 60.00% but less than 80.00% 41%
80.00% or more 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 323
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 626
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.259
3.
-0.248
4.
-0.246
5.
-0.24

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username