Started Nov 30, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks

Before 1 October 2019, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?

Mohammed bin Salman has moved to consolidate power in the Kingdom, but has recently been under scrutiny for the murder of jounalist Jamal Khashoggi (The Economist, The Guardian). In the past the Crown Prince has temporarily taken on the title of Vice Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques when the King has been unavailable; this will not count as ceasing to be Crown Prince.

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Name Probability
Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia 11%
Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia 3%
No 87%

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