Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?

Started Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

After multiple ICBM launches in 2017, North Korea's missile program has been comparatively quiet throughout 2018 (CNN). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.  

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Question clarification
Issued on 03/12/19 06:53pm
We have received an inquiry about whether satellite launches will count. For more information on what qualifies as an ICBM launch see: (38 North), (CNN).
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 457
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 994
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.043
3.
-0.043
5.
-0.043

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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