Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?
Started
Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: BBC, NY Times.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.00% | |
| No | 95.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 491 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 911 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
