Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020?

Started Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has used the People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some once posed as fishermen (Quartz, ChinaPower Project, The Diplomat, SCMP). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020. 

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 2252
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 2993
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.035
2.
-0.035
3.
-0.035
4.
-0.035

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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