Started Dec 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020?

A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has used the People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some once posed as fishermen (Quartz, ChinaPower Project, The Diplomat, SCMP).

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Name Probability
Yes 15%

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