Started Dec 28, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC (18 days ago)

Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.

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Name Probability
Yes 8%

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