Fareed Zakaria GPS asks
Will the United States experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019?
Started
Jan 04, 2019 10:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 20, 2019 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 20, 2019 05:00PM UTC
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The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2019 can be found here: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2020. The third estimate for Q3 2018 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 December 2019 (BEA).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 6.50% | |
No | 93.50% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 2034 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
Number of Forecasts | 3077 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |