Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will the United States experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019?

Started Jan 04, 2019 10:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 20, 2019 05:00PM UTC

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2019 can be found here: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2020. The third estimate for Q3 2018 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).  Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 December 2019 (BEA).  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.50%
No 93.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 2034
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 3077
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.118
2.
-0.118
3.
-0.118
4.
-0.118
5.
-0.118

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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