Which of the following US stock market indexes will perform worst between 31 January 2019 and 31 July 2019?

Started Feb 01, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 31, 2019 06:59AM UTC

Outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg, by dividing the end-of-day closing values for 31 July 2019 by the end-of-day closing values for 31 January 2019, which were: DJIA (Bloomberg): 24,999.67 NASDAQ Composite (Bloomberg): 7,281.74 Russell 2000 (Bloomberg): 1,499.42 S&P 500 (Bloomberg): 2,704.10 Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


The question closed "Russell 2000" with a closing date of 31 July 2019.  

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 5%
NASDAQ Composite 0%
Russell 2000 94%
S&P 500 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 211
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 727
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.666
2.
-0.654
3.
-0.628
4.
-0.579
5.
-0.567

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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